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"Uncertainty and Future Market Analysis of Concentrated Solar Power in the U.S.A"
There has been an ever growing concern over addressing the issue of climate change and reducing the green house gas emissions (GHG) in the whole world and especially in the U.S. Many measurements are being taken into account for reducing the adverse effects of the GHG emissions as well as making equilibrium between climate security and energy security which further paves the way for moving forward to a more green economy. Also energy independence is playing an increasing role in the political landscape. Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) technology as one kind of solar renewable energy technology has gained significant momentum in recent years. CSP is gaining acknowledgement for its potential to produce large volumes of power where it can be considered as an alternative source of energy which competes with the conventional fossil fuels. The main advantage of CSP is that its required energy is abundant and free, i.e. solar radiation. Characteristic for a CSP power plant is its industrial size based on heat transfer. Since NEM is a company active in the power business with expertise in the heat transfer equipment, it wants to pursue the new business opportunities in the CSP market. There exist different CSP market potential locations around the globe which can be considered for development of CSP project. The U.S. is perceived to be one of the main competitors-along with Spain-in the close future which is expected to gain a lion share of this solar energy market. However, the U.S. electricity market is subject to many uncertainties and thus investors in the electricity sector may be reluctant to take up technologies which involve higher risks. In essence, this research pursued to study the associated uncertainties that are embedded in the U.S. CSP energy market and investigated the directions in which this market can grow in the future term. In this research at first, the CSP technology assessment has been carried out. This includes elaboration on the basic characteristics and functionalities of three types of CSP technology which includes Parabolic Trough, Power Tower (or central receiver) and Liner Fresnel technology. Further, major key components which are of great importance both from the perspective of the market viability as well as shaping the U.S. CSP energy market are introduced. Next, the research builds on its methodological grounds for studying and analyzing the concept of uncertainty which is the focal point of this thesis. In essence, literature review on the concept of uncertainty and its background is performed. In order to profoundly come up with a valid and comprehensive framework for uncertainty analysis, it was crucial to study and discuss the most two important dimensions of uncertainty, that is the typology of sources and types of uncertainty. According to this sort of classification, an uncertainty-analysis framework was ultimately developed which encompassed all the aforementioned concepts. Furthermore, the methods and tools that can be used in dealing with uncertainty are presented. In fact, numerous methods can be found in the scientific literature, both qualitatively and quantitatively for reducing the issue of uncertainty. However in the framework of this research, scenarios -mainly from the policy analysis perspectivewas chosen to deal with the associated uncertainties in projection of the U.S. solar CSP market. Finally in the last phase of the research, the developed “uncertainty-scenario” framework is applied. The results from this step of the research indicate that the U.S. CSP energy market is highly reliant and impacted by couple of major uncertain forces which can be categorized as economic and financial, legal and political and finally social and behavioral forces. Further amid these identified forces and system changes, the research underlined three highly uncertain factors which have high impact on the renewable energy system namely as governmental regulatory regimes and supporting schemes, project financing (or the availability of money) and energy consumption. On the other hand, the current credit crisis has also been identified as a major force and cause of system change which affects almost all of these forces which has rippled through almost all renewable energy market sectors including CSP. Nevertheless, according to these identified highly uncertain forces which can cause great deals of impact on the system, scenarios for depicting plausible futures of the U.S CSP market are explored. These qualitative scenarios are created in a way to encompass different extremes on how the CSP future market can unfold namely as the base-case scenario, the low-case scenario and the high-growth case scenario. In the last step of this research, according to each of the derived scenarios relevant recommendation to NEM is provided. These recommendations are presented from two perspectives. In first place, recommendations for per-case developed scenario are provided. Next, recommendations in a more general perspective are presented. These mainly include acknowledging the kinds of decisions that should be taken where insufficient knowledge exists in connection to the development of technologies, such as CSP.
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Stakeholders' Perspectives on Carbon Capture and Storage in Indonesia
Several potential and challenges on the technical and non-technical aspects of carbon capture and storage (CCS) in Indonesia had been investigated by Indonesia CCS Study Working Group (CCS study group) in 2009. Yet, public acceptance on CCS is still less addressed in the CCS study group’s report and very little is known about the perspectives of stakeholders on CCS. Whilst, gaining stakeholders’ perspectives on CCS is important as it can improve the understanding on the issue surrounding CCS in Indonesia. Therefore this led to the challenge for conducting a study to investigate stakeholders’ perspectives on CCS in Indonesia. To take this challenge, Q methodology as an integrated quantitative and qualitative method for investigating people’s subjectivity was employed as the core method.
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Coordinating the Relief Chain in the Chinese Context
In the past decade, there has been an increasing number of natural disasters that led to catastrophic damage to mankind. China is one of the countries most affected by natural disasters in the world. Although logistics activities account for a large percentage of total operations in aftermath relief, they have frequently not been recognized as key levers for improving the effectiveness and efficiency of humanitarian organizations and as being crucial to operational excellence. Meanwhile, due to the large number of relief actors involved in the Chinese context, the coordination among various players becomes a very prominent challenge to cope with. Therefore, this master study aims to explore how to improve the coordination among actors in the Chinese relief chain context.
This research consists of theoretical and empirical parts. In the theoretical party, this thesis explores the prospects of transferring lessons learnt from the commercial supply chain to the relief chain by finding out the existing coordination mechanisms in the commercial logistics operations. Some coordination mechanisms- i.e. Joint Procurement, Quick Response, Continuous Replenishment Program, Vendor Managed Inventory, Joint Managed Inventory, Continuous Planning, Forecasting and Replenishment and 3rd party logistics are the practiced coordination mechanisms in procurement, inventory and transportation processes together with corresponding characteristics and requirements to adopt them. Besides specific coordination mechanisms, generic lessons learnt from the commercial supply chain are also abstracted. They are Resource Sharing, Joint Decision Making and Outsourcing, which can be performed on strategic, tactical or operational levels based on the orientations of relationships among coordinating alliance. These experiences from the commercial supply chain come as a foreground for relief actors to step on. Although the objective of the relief chain and commercial supply chain remains the same i.e. delivering right amount of materials to the right places, some factors existing after major disasters distinguish the relief chain from the commercial supply chain fundamentally. These factors are 1) Urgency 2) Uncertainty 3) Complexity of operation conditions 4) Co-existence of various actors. Due to the existence of these challenging factors in disaster aftermath, the current practicing coordination mechanisms in the commercial supply chain can’t be transferred directly into the relief chain. As the application level for these coordination mechanisms are evaluated respectively in this thesis, it turns out Joint Procurement, Quick Response and 3rd party logistics are those promising mechanisms with a high level of application prospect in the relief chain. Meanwhile, the generic lessons from the commercial supply chain still hold in the relief chain and especially when they are put in practice operationally or tactically among organizations.
The theoretical study provides the research a direction to further explore the reality. The Wenchuan earthquake case study is conducted to test the prospects of these coordination methods in Chinese context. Through this case study, all the specific promising coordination mechanisms are found with some changes adapted to specific situations. Some coordination initiatives that reflect the generic approaches (Resource Sharing) in commercial chain are also discovered i.e. demand information sharing and inventory capacity sharing. Meanwhile, some new coordination initiatives are invented uniquely by relief actors. They are coordination to have a complementary supply effect and coordination for the sake of legal operation.
In order to better involve actors in the relief chain, the following recommendations are offered to humanitarian organizations during the preparation phase 1) Non-governmental can be incorporated into existing relief system to achieve an overall complemented effect to governmental relief 2) Build up sustainable relations with suppliers on emergency supply 3) NGOs Identify strategic alliance before emergency. During response phase, it is advisable for NGOs to 1) Spot their position in less attention areas to avoid media’s framing effect 2) Coordination by standing by when information is unclear.
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Managing conflicts in water resources allocation: A sustainable water allocation for Urumia Lake Basin in Iran
Using the Urumia lake water allocation problem as a case study, a conflict analysis method was applied to look for possibilities to resolve the problem of conflicting demands for water. First a thorough overview of the problem was made by describing the Urumia lake basin and the human activities therein as a Large Technical System. After the problem was defined as such, a graph model for conflict resolution was applied to look for possible resolutions. The possibilities to arrive at a fair water allocation were summarized in a basic road map.
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Den Haag’s options against urban heat: Assessment and recommendations for current environmental policies regarding temperature effects
Climate change is characterised by a global increase in temperature and by the increase in the number of extreme weather events like; heatwaves, extreme droughts, and heavy rainfall. Ur-banisation can be seen as a climate problem, for example because of the lack of water storage in cities during times of drought and the lack of drainage during periods of heavy rainfall. Urban heat also can become a problem of urbanisation. During heatwaves the problem will occur there it may increase the risk of heat stress. The urban heat island effect therefore can be described as one of the causes of heat stress.
Den Haag, like many other cities, is confronted with the phenomenon urban heat. This phenomenon is not new in the Netherlands, because Conrads already proved the presents of an urban heat island in Utrecht during his research in the early 1970’s. The extreme manifes-tation of city heat is the so-called urban heat island effect, which can be described as the ef-fect of the city accumulating heat and consequently being warmer than its surrounding. The difference in temperature between the city and rural areas especially during the night can be up to 7ºC. The effect and its intensity are caused by the characteristics of a city. Solar energy is stored in for example pavement or buildings while vegetation, that has the ability to sub-tract heat from its environment by its natural process of evaporation, is often lacking. This in combination with the reduced airflow in urban areas makes the city prone to higher tempera-tures.
The higher temperatures in the city are causing trouble especially during heatwaves and other warm periods of the year. Since these events are more likely to appear due to climate change the urge for action increases. Urban heat directly affects the health of people, the con-sumption of electricity, the people’s level of comfort, the air quality, and even the mood of people.
There are different adaptation strategies available for the urban heat problem. These strategies have to be found in reducing the solar exposure, reducing the absorption of solar energy, and increasing the natural cooling capacity. The level at which these actions can be taken differs; the actions can be taken at building, at neighbourhood, and at city level. Meas-ures at building level mainly influence the indoor climate of the building and not directly the outdoor climate, while actions at neighbourhood and city level mainly influence the outdoor climate. The measures at building level considered in this thesis are green roofs and cool roofs. At neighbourhood or city level the options are applying cool pavement, add more trees and vegetation, apply water in different forms, and changing the whole city structure so air-flow and shading are increased.
Den Haag is a historical town resulting in areas with different characteristics, as a conse-quence different measures might be appropriate to use on different locations in the city. The layer which was build before 1870 (the city centre) can be characterised as densely build and populated. Also therefore this layer is expected to have a severe urban heat problem. The sec-ond layer that originates between 1870 and 1920 is characterised by the densely build neighbourhoods with stony appearances. This part of the city is also expected to suffer from urban heat, because of the number of people living here, and the physical character of the neighbourhoods. Some of these neighbourhoods are selected by the national government as being Krachtwijken, which means that there are opportunities to change the situation in these neighbourhoods. The neighbourhoods build after 1920 in general can be described as becom-ing increasingly greener and better adapted in terms of urban heat. This does not mean that there are no problems foreseen in these neighbourhoods, but that the problems are less urgent compared to the other layers.
In finding the appropriate strategy for the different areas of Den Haag different experts are consulted. In a qualitative way they scored the available adaptation strategies in the three dif-ferent city areas on six criteria. These criteria are investment, applicability, expected effect, additional effect, durability/maintenance, and acceptability. The criteria investment, expected effect, and acceptability are considered to be more important compared to the other criteria and therefore received a higher weight in the calculation. This calculation was done with the ELECTRE I method. For the layer build before 1870 the option to change the city structure was not taken in the calculation because it was considered to be impossible to change this. For this layer the strategies cool pavement, trees and vegetation, and cool roofs seem to be the most favourable adaptation options. For the layer build between 1870 and 1920 and for the layers build after 1920 cool pavement and trees and vegetation seem to be the most favour-able adaptation options. The first step Den Haag needs to take is to create a sense of urgency for urban heat. If this is done urban heat can become a policy theme for the municipality in the kadernota duurzaamheid. After that action can be taken in different steps from motivating to initiating.
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Using Dynamic Nonparametric Bayesian Belief Nets (BBNs) to Model Human Influences on Safety: A Potential Tool for Safety Management
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Social Entrepreneurship in Kenya
The subject of this research is the promotion of social entrepreneurship in Kenya. There are almost no medium-sized businesses in Kenya which indicates that there is a lack of growth of the many micro and small enterprises.
The research investigates what the pitfalls and barriers in culture and in the institutional framework for the country’s entrepreneurship are. Certain cultural dimensions as community feeling, particularism, power distance, and fatalism are discussed, next to some institutional problems as bureaucracy, corruption, and tribal issues. Civil society is examined as an important factor influencing development in a country. It was found to be coming up, but not yet fully developed in Kenya.
Recommendations on what would be beneficial changes to promote social entrepreneurship in Kenya are given in terms of cultural transition and institution building. Means to assist these changes are identified in the form of education, gender equality and urbanization.
Finally, the theory of the Capability Approach is used as an evaluation tool to indicate the social impact that the proposed transitions in cultural dimensions and developments in entrepreneurship have. This attempt will gain insight and provides a step towards applicability of the theory in practice in relation to cultural values with an emphasis on social entrepreneurship.
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Methodological problems in QFD and directions for future development
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On Genies and Bottles: Scientists’ Moral Responsibility and Dangerous Technology R&D
The age-old maxim of scientists whose work has resulted in deadly or dangerous technologies is: scientists are not to blame, but rather technologists and politicians must be morally culpable for the uses of science. As new technologies threaten not just populations but species and biospheres, scientists should reassess their moral culpability when researching fields whose impact may be catastrophic. Looking at real-world examples such as smallpox research and the Australian ‘‘mousepox trick’’, and considering fictional or future technologies like Kurt Vonnegut’s ‘‘ice-nine’’ from Cat’s Cradle, and the ‘‘grey goo’’ scenario in nanotechnology, this paper suggests how ethical principles developed in biomedicine can be adjusted for science in general. An ‘‘extended moral horizon’’ may require looking not just to the effects of research on individual human subjects, but also to effects on as a whole. Moreover, a crude utilitarian calculus can help scientists make moral decisions about which technologies to pursue and disseminate when catastrophes may result. Finally, institutions should be devised to teach these moral principles to scientists, and require moral education for future funding.
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A formal ontological perspective on the behaviors and functions of technical artifacts
In this paper we present a formal characterization of the engineering concepts of behavior and function of technical artifacts. We capture the meanings that engineers attach to these concepts by formalizing, within the formal ontology DOLCE, the five meanings of artifact behavior and the two meanings of function that Chandrasekaran and Josephson identified in 2000 within the functional representation approach.We begin our formalization by reserving the term “behavior” of a technical artifact as “the specific way in which the artifact occurs in an event.” This general notion is characterized formally, and used to provide definitions of actual behaviors of artifacts, and the physically possible and physically impossible behaviors that rational agents believe that artifacts have. We also define several other notions, for example, input and output behaviors of artifacts, and then
show that these ontologically characterized concepts give a general framework in which Chandrasekaran and Josephson’s meanings of behavior can be explicitly formalized. Finally we show how Chandrasekaran and Josephson’s two meanings of artifact functions, namely, device-centric and environment-centric functions, can be captured in DOLCE via the concepts of behavioral constraint and mode of deployment of an artifact. A more general goal of this work is to show that foundational ontologies are suited to the engineering domain: they can facilitate information sharing and exchange in the various engineering domains by providing concept structures and clarifications that make explicit and precise important engineering notions. The meanings of the terms “behavior” and “function” in domains like designing, redesigning, reverse engineering, product architecture, and engineering knowledge bases are often ambiguous or overloaded. Our results show that foundational ontologies can accommodate the variety of denotations these terms have and can explain their relationships.
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Applying Rawlsian Approaches to Resolve Ethical Issues: Inventory and Setting of a Research Agenda
Insights from social science are increasingly used in the field of applied ethics. However, recent insights have shown that the empirical branch of business ethics lacks thorough theoretical grounding. This article discusses the use of the Rawlsian methods of wide reflective equilibrium and overlapping consensus in the field of applied ethics. Instead of focussing on one single comprehensive ethical doctrine to provide adequate guidance for resolving moral dilemmas, these Rawlsian methods seek to find a balance between considered judgments and intuitions concerning particular cases on the one hand and general principles and theories on the other. In business ethics this approach is promising because it enables decision-making in a pluralist context with different stakeholders who often endorse different or even conflicting cultural and moral frameworks without giving priority to any of them. Moreover, the method is well founded in political theory. A taxonomy of different kinds of applications is developed, and classified according to the purpose, the content, and the type of justification. On the basis of this taxonomy an inventory of 12 recent applications is made. In terms of the purpose and content of the method the applications are rather diverse. Two conceptual obstacles for applying Rawlsian methods are identified, viz. inclusiveness and the communitarian objection that people have to become detached from their personal life. It is found that methodological questions, such as the question how to retrieve the relevant empirical data, are scarcely addressed in the literature. To advance the use of empirical approaches in general, and that of Rawlsian approaches in particular, it is important not only to use empirical data but to use methodological insights from social sciences in order to further advance the field of empirical ethics. It is recommended that stakeholders be given a more active role in the assessment and justification of these methods.
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Technology and Parental Responsibility: The Case of the V-Chip
In this paper, the so-called V-chip is analysed from the perspective of responsibility. The V-chip is a technological tool used by parents, on a voluntary basis, to prevent children from watching violent television content. Since 1997 in the United States, the V-chip is installed in all new televisions sets of 12" and larger.
We are interested in the question whether and how the introduction of the V-chip affects who is to be considered responsible for children. In the debate, it has been argued that the V-chip reduces parents’ responsibility for children, but it has also been argued that it gives parents a tool to exercise their responsibility. It may appear as though all debaters are discussing the same thing and merely have different opinions. However, we argue that there are at least three notions of responsibility underlying these claims and that these should be kept separate. First, arguments on responsibility may refer to responsibility as task distribution. Second, they can referto responsibility as control. Finally, a thicker concept of parental responsibility understood as a virtue may be referred to. It becomes clear that whereas task distribution changes to some extent and the possibilities for control are increased, only certain parts of parental responsibility as a virtue are affected. The finding that there appear to be different notions of responsibility involved in a debate that prima facie is about one issue, indicates that discussions on other technologies and how they affect responsibility may suffer from the same conceptual lack of clarity.
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Let’s Get Small: An Introduction to Transitional Issues in Nanotech and Intellectual Property
Much of the discussion regarding nanotechnology centers around perceived and prosphesied harms and risks. While there are real risks that could emerge from futuristic nanotechnology, there are other current risks involved with its development, not involving physical harms, that could prevent its full promise from being realized. Transitional forms of the technology, involving “microfab,” or localized, sometimes desk-top, manufacture, pose a good opportunity for case study. How can we develop legal and regulatory institutions, specifically centered around the problems of intellectual property, that both stimulate innovation, and make the best possible use of what will eventually be a market in “types” rather than “tokens”? This paper argues that this is the most critical, current issues facing nanotechnology, and suggests a manner to approach it.
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What Values in Design? The Challenge of Incorporating Moral Values into Design
Recently, there is increased attention to the integration of moral values into the conception, design, and development of emerging IT. The most reviewed approach for this purpose in ethics and technology so far is Value-Sensitive Design (VSD). This article considers VSD as the prime candidate for implementing normative considerations into design. Its methodology is considered from a conceptual, analytical, normative perspective. The focus here is on the suitability of VSD for integrating moral values into the design of technologies in a way that joins in with an analytical perspective on ethics of technology. Despite its promising character, it turns out that VSD falls short in several respects: (1) VSD does not have a clear methodology for identifying stakeholders, (2) the integration of empirical methods with conceptual research within the methodology of VSD is obscure, (3) VSD runs the risk of committing the naturalistic fallacy when using empirical knowledge for
implementing values in design, (4) the concept of values, as well as their realization, is left undetermined and (5) VSD lacks a complimentary or explicit ethical theory for dealing with value trade-offs. For the normative evaluation of a technology, I claim that an explicit and justified ethical starting point or principle is required. Moreover, explicit attention should be given to the value aims and assumptions of a particular design. The criteria of adequacy for such an approach or methodology follow from the evaluation of VSD as the prime candidate for implementing moral values in design.
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Anderson's Relevant Deontic and Eubouliatic Systems
We present axiomatizations of the deontic fragment of Anderson's relevant deontic logic (the logic of obligation and related concepts) and the eubouliatic fragment of Anderson's eubouliatic logic (the logic of prudence, safety, risk, and related concepts).
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Andersonian Deontic Logic, Propositional Quantification, and Mally
We present a new axiomatization of the deontic fragment of Anderson's relevant deontic logic, give an Andersonian reduction of a relevant version of Mally's deontic logic previously discussed in this journal, study the effect of adding propositional quantification to Anderson's system, and discuss the meaning of Anderson's propositional constant in a wide range of Andersonian deontic systems.
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A Network Approach for Distinguishing Ethical Issues in Research and Development
In this paper we report on our experiences with using network analysis to discern and analyse ethical issues in research into, and the development of, a new wastewater treatment technology. Using network analysis, we preliminarily interpreted some of our observations in a Group Decision Room (GDR) session where we invited important stakeholders to think about the risks of this new technology. We show how a network approach is useful for understanding the observations, and suggests some relevant ethical issues. We argue that a network approach is also useful for ethical analysis of issues in other fields of research and development. The abandoning of the overarching rationality assumption, which is central to network approaches, does not have to lead to ethical relativism.
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A procedural approach to distributing responsibilities in R&D networks
In professional settings, people often have diverse and competing conceptions of responsibility and of when it is fair to hold someone responsible. This may lead to undesirable gaps in the distribution of responsibilities. In this paper, a procedural model is developed for alleviating the tension between diverging responsibility conceptions. The model is based on the Rawlsian approach of wide reflective equilibrium and overlapping consensus. The model is applied to a technological project, which concerned the development of an in-house monitoring system based on ambient technology. The development of this innovative technology raised questions among the technological researchers about its social acceptance and the way issues related to privacy and security should be addressed.
The case is analyzed in terms of two procedural norms (reflective learning and inclusiveness), which are based on literature on policy and innovation networks. Analysis of the case shows that, in a pluralist setting, a procedural approach can be useful for encouraging discussion on the legitimacy of different responsibility conceptions and the question what a fair responsibility distribution amounts to.
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The normativity of artefacts
Part of the distinction between artefacts, objects made by humans for particular purposes, and natural objects is that artefacts are subject to normative judgements. A drill, say, can be a good drill or a poor drill, it can function well or correctly or it can malfunction. In this paper I investigate how such judgements fit into the domain of the normative in general and what the grounds for their normativity are. Taking as a starting point a general characterization of normativity proposed by Dancy, I argue how statements like ‘this is a good drill’ or ‘this drill is malfunctioning’ can be seen to express normative facts, or the content of normative statements. What they say is that a user who has a desire to achieve a particular relevant outcome has a reason to use, or not to use, the artefact in question. Next this analysis is extended to show that not just statements that say that an artefact performs its function well or poorly but all statements that ascribe a function to an artefact can be seen as expressing a normative fact. On this approach the normativity of artefacts is analyzed in terms of reasons on grounds of practical, and to a lesser extent theoretical, rationality. I close by investigating briefly to what extent reasons on moral grounds are, in the analysis adopted here, involved in the normativity of artefacts.
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Hoe hoorde u van de brand bij Chemie-Pack in Moerdijk? : Rapportage bevindingen vragenlijstonderzoek
Op woensdag 5 januari 2011 werden diverse communicatiemiddelen ingezet om de bevolking te alarmeren en informeren over de brand die was uitgebroken bij het bedrijf Chemie-Pack in Moerdijk. De waarschuwingen op 5 januari en de dag erna richtten zich op mogelijke directe gevaren als gevolg van inademing van de rook. Daarom werd advies afgegeven ramen en deuren te sluiten. Om dit advies kenbaar te maken zijn verschillende middelen ingezet, waaronder de sirene, geluidswagens, sms-alert, de rampenzender, radio, televisie en internet. Daarnaast informeren mensen elkaar en zijn er mensen die zelf de rook waarnemen en zo op de hoogte komen van de gebeurtenis.
Naar aanleiding van de brand heeft de TU Delft een vragenlijst opgesteld om inzicht te krijgen in de vraag: Via welke kanalen heeft de bevolking voor het eerst gehoord van de brand en is er verschil tussen alarmeren en informeren?
De 462 bruikbare reacties zijn ingedeeld op basis van de locatie waar de respondent zich bevond toen de brand ontstond. Deze locatie is bepalend voor het doel van de waarschuwing en informatie over de brand. De resultaten laten zien dat in het als eerst te alarmeren gebied respondenten hoorden van de brand via een andere persoon of organisatie, via een specifiek alarm of waarschuwingsmiddel of via visuele waarneming. De respondenten in dit gebied komen als eerste op hoogte van de brand. Ook in het tweede gebied waar het advies werd afgegeven, maar zonder inzet van alarm of waarschuwingsmiddelen, hoorden respondenten van de brand via andere personen/ organisatie of via informatiekanalen (radio, televisie, internet). Als laatste op de hoogte kwamen de mensen in het derde gebied waar alleen informatie behoefte was. In dit gebied is het advies om ramen en deuren gesloten te houden niet gecommuniceerd. Respondenten in dit gebied kwamen voornamelijk op de hoogte via informatiekanalen. Zij waren later op de hoogte dan de mensen die aanwezig waren in de beide andere gebieden.
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