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BHD is an international contractor with core activities in the construction and maintenance of ports and waterways, the creation of new land in coastal waters, the protection of sea- and rivershores and support to the offshore oil industry. BHD decided to start applying risk analyses in the year 1995. However, it would be more correct to use the term 'risk management', the analysis and control of risks. The hypothesis of the study is that SHO's risk management strategy can be improved. The goal of the study was to validate the hypothesis and improve, where necessary, the risk management activities of BHO. The dredging world has some unique characteristics. Important ones are: 1. A project is awarded to the contractor who makes the most appealing bid to a possible client for executing a project; 2. There are few big contractors, less than ten, in the dredging world; 3. The time pressure is high during the tender phase of a project. This discourages experts from giving optimal input; 4. In a lot of contracts, the contractor and the client agree on a penalty-structure. This means that if the contractor fails to finish the project before a certain date, he has to pay the client a fine, often per day. These penalties are called LO'S2. A new risk management strategy has been developed in the study, which is adapted to these characteristics. The risk management strategy also has to provide accurate results. A balance has to be struck between the amount of time risk management activities are allowed to take and the desired accuracy. The risk management cycle consists of two management cycles plus the system description and the tender description. Chapters 3, 5 and 6 of the master's thesis describe these elements of the risk management cycle in detail. The goals of the risk management cycle are: 1. Acquiring an overview of the risks concerning the project and their contribution to the project uncertainty; 2. Optimising the work methods for projects in the portfolio of projects and optimising the resources of the contractor; 3. Determining the risk overhead on the project that is tendered for; 4. Determining the conditions under which the contractor agrees to execute the project. The biggest achievement of the study is the development of a concept, which makes the relationship between the 'technical' risk management cycle and the 'economical' determination of the profit overhead more explicit. It has to be stressed that the concept as suggested in this study is still conceptual. This study does not pretend to provide the final, closed, theory. The CAPM3 argues that a trade-off exists between risk and return. The profit overhead and the risk overhead on a project that is tendered for should not be determined in isolation. With a variant of the CAPM requirement the desired profit overhead on a project that is tendered for can be determined.

A Risk Scan is developed for indentifying the most important risk when transforming office buildings into housing

In de huidige situatie maakt men bij de uitvoering van risicoanalyses voor grote projecten van Ballast Nedam gebruik van de groep risicomanagement binnen Ballast Nedam Engineering. Bij kleine en middelgrote projecten is de betrokkenheid van een analist op het werk een te grote aanslag op de projectkosten. De afwezigheid van risicoanalisten en onvoldoende systematisch gebruik van risicomanagement bij kleine en middelgrote projecten leidt tot gebreken in de projectbeheersing. Het optreden van terugkerende risico's en de forse verschillen in de financiele projectresultaten zijn gebreken die men binnen Ballast Nedam constateert. Ter verbetering van de projectbeheersing en in antwoord op de gebreken is in dit afstudeeronderzoek op basis van een hypothese een voorstel gedaan voor de bedrijfsbrede implementatie van een actief projectrisicomanagement model. Het voorgestelde model zal door systematisch en overzichtelijk gebruik van risicomanagement moeten bijdragen aan de projectbeheersing. Daarnaast zal het model de mogelijkheid moeten bieden de projectleiding in alle projectfasen zelfstandig een risicoanalyse te kunnen laten uitvoeren. In het afstudeeronderzoek wordt voor het zelfstandig uitvoeren van de risicoanalyse gezocht naar mogelijkheden van ondersteunende gereedschappen. Om tot de ontwikkeling van een eenvoudige en gebruiksvriendelijk projectrisicomanagement model te komen zijn een reeks onderzoeksvragen geformuleerd. De kernvragen richten zich op de ontwikkeling van een theoretische basis en een onderzoek naar de problematiek in de huidige projectbeheersing. In de probleemverkenning is gezocht naar een algemene behoefte en de interesse binnen de vier grote werkmaatschappijen van Ballast Nedam. De vanuit de interviews voortkomende meningen van managementteamleden en projectleiders geeft de input van een eisenpakket aan het te ontwikkelen model. De uitwerking van een theoretische basis voorziet in enkel van deze eisen. Zo geeft het theoretisch kader een voor de gebruiker duidelijke vertaling van risicomanagement begrippen. Voordat wordt ingegaan op een binnen projectrisicomanagement wordt een omschrijving gegeven van een projectrisico. Een projectrisico is een gebeurtenis of conditie met een waarschijnlijkheid van optreden die, wanneer zij optreedt, positieve of negatieve gevolgen op de projectdoelstelling kan hebben. Afhankelijk van het kansdeel kan er binnen de projectrisico's een tweedeling in normale onzekerheden en bijzondere gebeurtenissen worden opgemaakt. Op basis van de definitie voor een projectrisico en gericht op projectmatig werken in de bouw, kan een definitie van projectrisicomanagement worden opgesteld opgebouwd uit een doel- en procesbeschrijving. Het doer van projectrisicomanagement is het beperken van afwijkingen op de projectdoelstellingen in tijd, geld en kwaliteit. In combinatie met de definitie van een projectrisico kan dit worden vereenvoudigd tot het beheersen van projectrisico's. Door interactie met bedrijfsrisicomanagement ontstaat in de vorm van beslissingsondersteunende informatie een tweede doel van projectrisicomanagement. Naast een doelbeschrijving gaat de definitie van projectrisicomanagement in op de procesbeschrijving. Zeer uiteenlopende procesbeschrijvingen kunnen worden teruggebracht tot een basisproces bestaande uit drie basisonderdelen: een projectrisicomanagement plan, een risicoanalyse en de risicobeheersing. Het eerste onderdeel beschrijft de benadering van risicomanagement in projectspecifieke zin. De risicoanalyse heeft tot doer om een basis te leveren voor het rationeel nemen van beslissingen. In het laatste onderdeel worden op basis van de risicoinformatie beheersmaatregelen geformuleerd die in concrete acties zullen overgaan.

Floods along lowland rivers still cause a lot of damage and casualties although centuries of experience with flood risk management have passed. In order to reduce flood impacts and to prevent flood waves from causing disasters, the current and alternative flood risk management strategies need to be reconsidered. As a potential solution the Dutch policy makers propose to increase the resilience of systems, since resilient systems are expected to be able to cope better with disturbances such as flood waves. In their policies, however, resilience and resilient water systems are not clearly defined. Resilience has a positive connotation although it is difficult to explain exactly what the positive aspects of resilient systems for water management are. In this thesis this positive connotation of resilience was verified. The objective of this research was to establish whether applying the resilience concept facilitates the development of comprehensive strategies for flood risk management of large lowland river systems. To study the potential benefits resulting from the application of the resilience concept first resilience was defined and quantified by indicators. Secondly, case studies were carried out on the lowland parts of the Rhine, Meuse and Mekong Rivers.

Knowingly taking risk is essential to the success of the real estate development business. Investing in real estate development projects, which are characterised by complexity and uncertainty, implies that high risks are taken. Interestingly, little is known about how real estate development organisations have incorporated the skills and procedures necessary to deal successfully with the risky nature of the business. This thesis offers insight into the investment decision making process of three prominent Dutch real estate development companies. The result is an explanatory framework that demonstrates that making good investment decisions is not restricted to analysing risks to support the justification of decisions, but it is also necessary to address decision problems in time, and to ensure that someone is accountable for the decision. The framework offers an innovative perspective on risk management and decision making. Additionally, the thesis presents management practices used to ensure that risks are taken knowingly. These practices are of relevance to senior management of real estate development organisations to design and improve its own decision making procedures.

This paper aims at studying the coordination of governmental actors, such as customs, and supply chain partners in order to mitigate risks. To do so the concepts of supply chain visibility and data pipeline are briefly revisited. Then the result of a survey, highlighting the risk coordination challenges, carried with customs and supply chain partners is presented. One of the main challenges identified is that business partners should incur the implementation costs of such systems while the benefits are not clear to them. To highlight the potential operational benefits gained through such systems for business partners, we consider counterfeiting risks and study how a coordinated risk management scheme between governmental actors and business partners leads to cost efficiency through less inspection costs and congestion-induced delay at ports

This thesis compares exploratory modeling and analysis (EMA) to other methods for analyzing uncertainty. A set of criteria to compare the performance of methods is designed. Based on two case studies the perfromance of EMA on these criteria is assessed. Based on a workshop with experts the advantages of EMA over other methods for analyzing uncertainty are defined. EMA is a method which enables a extensive and deliberate consideration of uncetrainty. The method has most potential in situations with a lot of uncertainty and large possible consequences of making a wrong decision.

Multiple instruments and procedures are used within the different project management areas in order to execute projects in an efficient and controllable way. Project Risk Management (PRM) has become over the past years a crucial part of the project management practices and is seen by many practitioners as a key factor to go towards more successful projects. More and more organizations are adopting this practice in an effort to achieve a better strategic alignment, increase the project success, and optimize the utilization of their resources. The research aims at generating new insights in the field of project risk management. This was done by investigating the main tenets of the risk management theory and by comparing it to empirical data gathered through a case study. Several short-, medium-, and long- term recommendation were made based on a Risk Maturity Model.

Chapter 8: International Fatigue Risk Management Forum - Safety Promotion and Feedback in FRMS The European Commission HILAS project (Human Integration into the Lifecycle of Aviation Systems - a project supported by the European Commission’s 6th Framework between 2005-2009) was focused on using human factors knowledge and methodology to address key challenges for aviation (current and future) including a performance based approach for safety and fatigue management in the aviation sector, mainly inflight operations and maintenance. The project Deliverables have been presented as a series of draft book chapters on Safety Management Systems with emphasis on Fatigue risk Management and organisational learning from operational experiences in aviation. The chapters also include conceptual frameworks underlying a thorough analysis of essential functions, contents and structures of a Safety Management System (SMS). This includes supporting functionalities such as investigation in just culture context, decision making processes, and safety promotion. This set of eight (8) draft chapters links theory with field implementation and regulation in airlines. The draft chapters are: Ch. 1: Organisational Learning and Organisational Memory for SMS and FRMS Ch. 2: Resilience Safety Culture in Aviation Organisations Ch. 3: Operational Risk Management System for SMS and FRMS Ch. 4: Incident Investigation in SMS and FRMS Ch. 5: Developing a Safety Management System for Fatigue Related Risks in easyJet Ch. 6: Safety Assurance Process for FRMS – eJcase Implementation Ch. 7: Developing a Resilient Just Culture in SMS and FRMS – eJcase Implementation Ch. 8: International Fatigue Risk Management Forum - Safety Promotion and Feedback in FRMS

This paper examines the applicability and limitations of the proposed analytical framework. The framework was developed to facilitate an analysis of territorial development processes taken culture as an important element shaping planning processes and spatial outcomes. Five main principles underpin the proposed analytical framework are the concept of social-ecological system (Folke et al. 2005), culture-changing dynamics (Gullestrup 2006), Institutional Analysis and Development framework (Ostrom 2005), five dimensions of cultures (Hofstede and Hofstede 2005) and cultural theory (Thompson et al. 1990). The analysis of territorial development of the Bangkok Metropolitan Region, with special emphasis on the impacts of local cultures on policy initiatives and spatial outcomes in relation to flood risk management in the region, is taken as an example for investigation. The analysis shows that despite its potential subjectivity resulted by heuristic interpretation, the proposed analytical framework tends to be a promising approach.

This paper presents a new approach of applying numerical methods to model storm processes. A storm empirical track technique is utilized to simulate the full tracks of hurricanes, starting with their initial points over the sea and ending with their landfall locations or final dissipations. The theoretical framework was first described in the literature by Vickery et al. (2000) and is extended in this study by introducing a new formula and several substantial adjustments. The results show acceptable accuracy, even if the input data are for a short period. For the Vietnam area, the research successfully generates a large database of synthetic storm tracks on the basis of a limited historical track record and a local climatological variable (i.e. sea surface temperature). The model is evaluated through the comparisons between the key storm statistics derived from the observed and simulated data over the entire research area (i.e. the South China Sea). In addition, some possible applications of this method to coastal structure design and coastal risk assessment are proposed.

This article assesses the risk to life for the Natomas Basin, a low-lying, rapidly urbanizing region in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta in California. Using an empirical method, the loss of life is determined for a flood (high water), seismic, and sunny-day levee breach scenario. The analysis indicated that more than 1000 fatalities may occur in the flood scenario and that there is a high flood risk compared to similar systems (such as dams and flood-prone areas in the Netherlands). Findings show that risk to life highly depends on evacuation effectiveness. The evacuation and emergency management system (EEM) was further analyzed through interviews with regional emergency managers and training exercise evaluation reports. Using an analytic framework, critical factors that affect EEM performance and reliability were identified. Results indicate a need to assess EEM performance to improve preparedness and reduce the risk to life. Findings from the investigation contribute to more integrated risk analyses of both the technical and management components for engineered systems.

The degree of supply chain risk faced by many companies has risen dramatically and the impact of disruptions can cascade easily across companies’ and countries’ borders. To handle this increased vulnerability, systematic approaches and decision making tools are needed to provide support in managing supply chain disruptions. In this thesis, an integrated process: InForMDRiSC, and an agent-based simulation framework are presented and discussed. These two contributions are complementary means for managing supply chain disruptions. InForMDRiSC describes the steps to be followed in managing supply chain disruptions, whereas the simulation framework supports the building of simulation models for specific supply chains which enable decision makers to experiment with different strategies and tactics to prevent or recover from supply chain disruptions.

The earthquake and tsunami of March 2011 led to death and destruction in coastal areas in Japan. A seminar was held in June 2012 for Japanese and Dutch coastal researchers to discuss lessons for the management of the risks in coastal areas associated with tsunamis, typhoons and storm surges. The seminar has highlighted important practical and theoretical issues in coastal protection, risk and emergency management, and climate change and sea level rise research that are of importance for the Netherlands and Japan and other coastal regions. The performance of the system during historical events gives important lessons for the (re)design of resilient coastal protection systems in the future. It has also been discussed how risk assessments can be utilized to determine how an effective combination of prevention, land use planning and emergency management can be implemented to minimize future risks in the coastal zone.

This paper investigates the effect of major catastrophes have on stock exchange values for the major multi-nationals. The paper demonstrates that the Sharpe analysis is more sensitive in identifying effects than just following the daily stock values for assessing market response. It was found that major multi-nationals are capable of absorbing incredible amounts of financial damage following from catastrophes before stock markets react. This is partly due to the complexity of modern financial market risks that can be sold or transferred easily from the operative entity to another entity. The findings suggest that Hudson’s (2007) HSE culture ladder requires a step below the pathological to reflect the reaction of the stock exchange market on major catastrophes: the indifferent level. If the financial risks of catastrophes are covered, market traders rarely assign further consequences for the loss of life to the company through the lowering stock prices. Despite that, there may be a threshold value for financial loss that could bring major multi-nationals to bankruptcy due to market capital loss.

Recent disasters in high hazard industries such as Oil and Gas Exploration (The Deepwater Horizon) and Petrochemical production (Texas City) have been found to have causes that range from direct technical failures through organizational shortcomings right up to weak regulation and inappropriate company cultures. Risk models have generally concentrated upon technical failures, which are easier to construct and for which there is more concrete data. The primary causes, as identified by the US Chemical Safety Board for Texas City and the Presidential Commission for the Deepwater Horizon, lie firmly rooted in the culture of the organization and determine the way in which individuals go about risky activities. Modelling human activities, especially collectively rather than individual human errors as is done in most human models, is a quite different proposition, in which complex interactions between different individuals and levels change over time as success and failure alter the pattern of payoffs. This paper examines the development of an integrated model for risk in a real-time environment for the hydrocarbon industry. It is based originally on the CATS model for commercial aviation safety, that first attempted to address some of these problems in a relatively simple way. Aviation is, however, a relatively simple activity, with large numbers of common components in a constrained environment. The Oil and Gas industry is significantly more diverse, covering the gamut from exploration, drilling, production, transport, refining and chemical production, each with its own potential for large scale disaster, but in the case of an integrated oil company all run by individuals within a common company culture. Other papers will cover the details of specific issues; this paper covers the integration of the model as a whole.

The current focus on risk-based approaches to the governance of technology poses new challenges to the combined effort of policymakers and experts since the current worlds of technology and governance are very different. We make use of two hegemonic perspectives in these worlds, i.e. the systems and the network perspective, to analyse the expected contributions from expertise and experts to policy-making about infrastructures. The first question we address is how these two perspectives shape the expectations of the contribution of experts and expertise to problemsolving and policy-making. Second, we explore how practitioners may deal with inevitable conflicting expectations. Based on documents and previous research and illustrated with examples of flood-defence projects from the Netherlands, this paper concludes that perspectives may be coupled or uncoupled in practices of collaboration, and that practitioners should reconsider the contingent room to manoeuvre in policy-making, and the role they may take.