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Judgment under uncertainty: a probabilistic evaluation framework for decision-making about sanitation systems in low-income countries
Sanitation, as described by the World Health Organization (WHO), refers to the provisions of facilities and services for safe disposal of human urine and faeces. On the outset of the 21st century, 40% of the world’s inhabitants do not have access to sanitation facilities and still rely on a bucket, a bush or a backstreet for excretion. Technically, all options that are required to deal with the global sanitation problem seem to have been already developed. However, the challenge remains in selection and implementation of technologies in a way that the desirable outcomes would be resulted. Some decision-making support tools have been developed so far to address this problem by assisting the decision-makers in selecting the appropriate technologies. While decision-making is about considering the likelihood of uncertain events, in most of the existing evaluation approaches the complex task of predicting and evaluating probabilities is reduced to simple judgmental operations. Forinstance, evaluation of sanitation options is often performed based on predicting the outcomes that best represent a sanitation system, with no or little regard to the factors that limit the predictive accuracy.
This thesis adopts a new evaluation approach by taking into account the real world examples from executed sanitation facilities and develops a probabilistic evaluation framework in which sanitation options are assessed based on the probabilities that specific outcomes occur in practice. Absolute judgments are replaced by probable assessments, as this approach tries to keep its distance from making the uncertain certain. Although there may be a hidden consensus that quantification of occurrence probabilities for various outcomes of sanitation options is not always possible, some quantification methods are developed and presented in this thesis for all the assessment criteria. Moreover, this thesis does not only focus on making the decisions, but also tries to channel the decisions in a way that the negative outcomes of sanitation facilities would be reduced through the measures that could be taken to improve the performance of sanitation options.
By applying the probabilistic evaluation approach for decision-making about sanitation facilities in low-income unplanned slum settlement of Nyalenda in Kisumu, Kenya (based on limited available data about this region in literature) it is indicated that while a sanitation option may be known for fulfilling a certain task by definition, through a probabilistic evaluation it may be revealed that the local conditions are not likely to allow the expected outcome to occur in practice and as a result this option would have no priority among other options. The necessity for monitoring and post-evaluation of implemented sanitation projects in order to have sufficient feedback for improvement of future decisions is also highlighted.
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Needs assessment of BOP customers in Southern Sudan on health, water and sanitation
South Sudan, after the long civil war between North and South, is still remained war-affected. In order to find the opportunities for reconstruction and rehabilitation in South Sudan, SHF conducted fact finding missions and decided to prioritize the assistance by realizing suitable water and sanitation (WATSAN) facilities before starting a complete housing program. Therefore, BB4P as a building company working with SHF, wanted to develop WATSAN facility for South Sudanese BOP customers based on their Bubble-building concept. The goal of this project was, therefore, to identify the needs and demands of South Sudanese BOP customers in the areas of health, water and sanitation, and to develop the total system for the WATSAN units.
In order to achieve the goal, five different research and design phases were planned and executed. The phases are: (1) exploratory research; (2) context analysis; (3) culture analysis; (4) optimal solution search; and (5) final concept proposal, evaluation, and recommendation. Throughout the explorative research, basic project knowledge was attained, and how to make the project successful was found. As the way to make a successful project, context and culture analysis was proposed as the research method not only to identify the WATSAN needs and demands of South Sudanese BOP customers but also to obtain other necessary information for developing locally tailored solutions, in other words, the solution ensuring the success of implementation. Context analysis found general problems, barriers, and opportunities around water and sanitation. At the end of the analysis, the synthesis result showed the complex problem model in South Sudan. By simulating hypothetical scenarios, eight significant factors were found and then they were again narrowed down to four focal points such as education, WATSAN, healthcare, and media. On the basis of these focal points, several possible solution models were suggested. Culture analysis found WATSAN specific problems, needs, preferences, their WATSAN products/services, behaviors, as well as their general mindset. During the synthesis of culture study, the target place and people were decided to primary schools and school children, and design requirements and design guide were formulated as well. Based on the design requirements and design guide, the initial product-service model in primary schools was created, and it was revised into the final concept throughout the optimal-solution search. The revised product-service model was evaluated, and recommendations were suggested at the end.
As a main final result, a toilet unit includes ventilation-improved urine diversion toilet, waterless urinal, hand-washbasin using P.I.P.A. rain water harvesting system, wash-and-change room for girls, and cleaning materials; the primary source of water is harvested rain water; cleaning and maintenance system involves school health club, school farmers, cooks, and community caretakers. The final product-service model also includes (1) fence around the school, (2) trash separation/burning/recycling, (3) school health center and sickroom, (4) kitchen and school bathroom, (5) lulu tree farming for soap supply, (6) water filter for water treatment and distribution, etc. for the students’ better safety, health, education, and more pleasant learning environment. The whole system creates jobs and helps increase overall health awareness in the community level as well. In order to make this project implementation successful and more sustainable, the first imperative future work was advised to let the exact users, cleaners, and maintainers (e.g., students and teachers) know and evaluate this solution model, and to make sure that they would like to adopt, build, use, and maintain this solution. Effective health and hygiene education (e.g., CHAST) and sector-wide approach should go together with the project implementation as well. The ideal scenario for the planning and implementation, and other necessary future works were suggested as recommendations too.
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Innovations in sanitation for sustainable urban growth; modernized mixtures in an east african context
Urbanisation of poverty and informality in East Africa poses a threat to public health and environmental protection, perpetuating social exclusion and inequalities, while it creates service gaps.
Neither conventional on-site sanitation nor modern centralised off-site sanitation provisions are tenable citywide, giving rise to the emergence of sanitation mixtures to meet sanitation demands. However, existing mixtures are not successful in meeting basic sanitary goals and show severe gaps in basic service provision and/or protection of human and environmental health. The evolved sanitation mixtures are theorised as a form of reflexive sanitary modernisation in tandem with local context variables. To achieve long-term sustainability in these mixtures, each sanitation option should undergo a modernisation process before it complies with specified sustainability criteria linked to 1) public and environmental health, 2) public accessibility, and 3) technological flexibility to adopt future amendments. The proposed modernised mixtures approach is helpful as an analytical tool for describing, mapping and assessing sanitation systems and their reconfigurations in societies where sanitation mixtures are a norm rather than an exception. It is also very helpful as a conceptual model for organizing a research agenda along the four categorised modernised mixtures dimensions, i.e. 1) its technical and spatial scale, 2) its scope of management (centralised – decentralised), 3) the nature of the flows (excreta – sewage), and 4) end-user participation. Translation of the proposed conceptual modernised mixtures model into a mathematical model is a challenge yet to be explored. Considering its intrinsic dynamic character of dependence on varying spaces, flows and scales of city development, a mathematical modernised mixtures model would provide a regulatory design tool for city planners for adopting amendments to existing sanitation solutions .
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