· · · Institutional Repository

With the advent of affordable and powerful game engines, simulation games have become an increasingly effective solution for organising virtual training sessions in areas such as incident response, safety supervision and medical services. These simulation games are replacing real-life training sessions, which are often expensive and time-consuming. The downside with using simulation games for training purposes is that current simulation games lack the flexibility of adjustable training programs that real-life trainings have, due to simulation games being a finalised, and thus static, product. This research focuses on how to increase the flexibility of training programs offered by simulation games. This is done by abstracting the scenario of simulation games, so it can be re-arranged by the training instructor using a standalone editing application. A prototype of such an application, called Shai, is developed to demonstrate and validate this approach.

The city of Athens underwent a rapid expansion that initiated in the 1950s and 1960s because of the transition from the agricultural to the industrial economy. Today, the capital of Greece is undergoing different transformations due to the shift from the industrial to the postindustrial and informational era. These observations could lead us to question the future of the city of Athens and of the Attica territory as a whole and could make us realize the potentialities of the drosscape within the Attica basin. Dross is the residual of the urban processes, the left-over, in other words the waste landscapes of the territory. The thesis attempts to confront the problem of wastelands, drosscape and brownfields and research for new tools to deal with them. The thesis is design-oriented and as a project attempts to transmit knowledge by integrating the different scales of city and territory. The main research question investigated is: «How can we re-use the waste landscapes of the Attica basin by combining the needs of both the metropolitan and the local scale? ». The analysis aimed at identifying the dross areas while looking at the factors contributing to their formation and trying to predict the future waste landscape within the specific territory of Athens. By looking at the drosscapes as a potential for the city, the design used the method of scenarios in order to investigate potentialities and risks.

Het doel van ons bachelorproject was om de mogelijkheden te onderzoeken voor een intuïtieve 3D editor. Deze editor moest de beperkingen van een 2D editor verhelpen. De door ons gevonden oplossing diende te worden ondersteund met een implementatie in EVE, het visualisatieplatform van TNO. Nadat het Plan van Aanpak2 geschreven was zijn we meteen overgegaan tot het onderzoek3. Dit onderzoek bestond voornamelijk uit het proberen van bekende editors. De meesten hiervan kwamen uit de games industrie en waren om deze reden makkelijk te verkrijgen. Tijdens dit onderzoek hebben wij ons vooral geconcentreerd op de gebruikersinterface, de besturing van de camera en de wijze waarop objecten in de wereld geplaatst kunnen worden. Het onderzoek hebben we uiteindelijk afgesloten met een door ons voorgestelde oplossing. In deze oplossing visualiseerden wij hoe het eindproduct eruit moest gaan zien zonder te kijken naar een onderliggende implementatie. Aan de hand van de resultaten van het onderzoek en de wensen van de opdrachtgever stelden wij het Programma van Eisen4 op. Hierna maakten wij op basis van de kennis die we tot dan toe hadden opgedaan over EVE het systeem ontwerp5. Omdat EVE een hoop dingen bleek te kunnen die wij niet in de documentatie hadden gevonden moest het systeem ontwerp in de eerste instantie meerdere malen worden aangepast, meestal betekende dit dat we meer hadden ontworpen dan nodig was. Zo eindigden wij met de twee belangrijkste klassen, een klasse die de acties van de gebruikersinterface afhandelt en een klasse die de camera acties afhandelt. In de loop van het project liepen wij geregeld tegen problemen aan. Vaak wilden we iets gebruiken dat door EVE niet werd ondersteund. Uiteindelijk lukte het ons vrijwel elke keer om op een alternatieve manier alsnog het gewenste resultaat te bereiken. Soms hebben wij hiervoor, met toestemming van de opdrachtgever, de implementatie van EVE moeten aanpassen. Terug kijkend op het resultaat concluderen wij dat we onze doelstellingen hebben behaald. We hebben een prototype afgeleverd waarmee eenvoudig en snel een scenario opgezet kan worden (zie de demonstratie video in de bijlage). Onze begeleider en opdrachtgever reageerden zeer positief over het door ons afgeleverde product. Zelf zijn wij ook tevreden over het verloop en het resultaat en we willen daarom nogmaals alle betrokkenen bedanken die ons op welke manier dan ook hebben geholpen bij het realiseren van dit product.

Onderzoek naar de mogelijke duurzaamheidsingrepen bij het duurzaam transformeren van industrieel erfgoed. Hierbij wordt gekeken naar de motieven van de opdrachtgever om in te spelen op duurzaamheid en de haalbaarheid van duurzame transformatie. Uiteindelijk worden scenario's met bijbehorende aandachtspunten geformuleerd. - Research on possible sustainability aspects that can be used in a sustainable building transformation of industrial heritage. Motives from the initiator to make use of sustainability aspects and the feasability of the sustianable building transformation are taken into account. Different scenarios and their issues are formulated.

The information and communication industry grows faster and faster, becoming an essential part of our lives: internet, mobile communication and navigation software quickly make themselves indispensable. At the same time, the transport market is subject to globalisation, which is both a threat and an opportunity for NS. In this project, I anticipate on the consequences of these developments, by creating a product development strategy for the online travel information for the upcoming decade.

The Ahold Innovation Team (AIT) creates new technological applications for Albert Heijn, Etos, Gall&Gall, Hypernova and Albert. The most potential innovations are developed until ready to test on a small scale. Thereafter, the ideas need to be transferred to the business in order to implement them large scaled on the shopping floor. Over the last few years however not many ideas from the AIT have been successfully transferred. It can be stated that there is a gap between their ideas and the implementation. The main objective of this graduation project, therefore, was to develop a concept that can help bridge this gap. Analysis An analysis of the AIT, their way of working and other stakeholders that are involved, showed that symptoms of the gap appear in different phases of the innovation process. Insights into these topics were used as a starting point to held interviews with stakeholders and execute a competitor and a consumer analysis. Here from, a total of 38 symptoms of the gap between ideas and implementation resulted. These symptoms could be clustered in three main groups called ‘vision’, ‘selection’ and ‘collaboration’. The first cluster includes the AIT needing to first have a clearer vision of where they want to go to and then use technology in order to get there, instead of starting from a technological perspective. Secondly, more solid criteria should be used to select ideas that fit to the needs and wishes of the business. Finally, better collaboration with the other stakeholders of the innovation process can stimulate an easier transfer of the technological ideas into the implementation phase. Idea generation and concept development The three main clusters of symptoms that emerged from the analysis were used to generate concept ideas. A process of diverging and converging of new ideas showed that several elements could be combined to enlarge their solution areas. Finally, based on criteria from the AIT, the final concept was chosen: The scenario concept. The scenario concept was further developed to specifically fit the mission of the AIT by gaining more information about the possibilities of the scenario planning technique. From another in depth analysis it was concluded that the scenario concept is very well suited to execute in the form of a workshop in which several stakeholders can participate to stimulate collaboration. It also showed that the scenario planning technique actually offers a way to more continuously execute future thinking instead of only during the building of the scenarios itself, as it can provide guidelines for the search for environmental trends. The objective of the scenario concept can therefore be formulated as: Collaborative creation of a vision on the future in order to continuously generate and select successful technological innovations. The scenario concept was subsequently tested with the Etos. Insights from this test were then used to optimize the scenario concept into its final proposal as further described below. The final scenario concept The scenario concept provides a new way of innovating and consists of six phases, which are led and primarily executed by a project manager. The core of the concept consists of two one-day workshops (phases 3 and 5), facilitated by the project manager, in which three groups of participants work together. These three different groups are technology experts from the IM department of Ahold, employees from a certain business department, and external participants with a creative profession. The goal is to make use of the different insights of these participants in order to generate and select new ideas to finally create a roadmap (plan) of new technological innovations that fit the participants’ shared vision. Phase 1. Frame the search First, the project manager has to set parameters for the study which will make the end result more specific to the purposes of the business department that is involved. The topic must be selected, along with the time horizon and the geographical boundaries of the study. Phase 2. Analyze driving forces Within the boundaries that are set, the project manager executes a PESTED trend research. Phase 3. Determine main drivers & build scenarios In the first workshop the participants will be asked to score the PESTED trends on their impact on the store and the (un)certainty of happening within the determined time horizon. From the critical trends, two are determined as main drivers of the scenario matrix. The combination of the extremes of these drivers defines four different scenarios of the future. Creative techniques are then used to let the participants further enrich these scenarios. A final discussion at the end of this first workshop aims to find out how the participants imagine the future will evolve; their ‘shared’ vision. Phase 4. Take-home assignment To ensure more familiarity with the scenarios, a take-home assignment was created which the participants have to execute in between the two workshops. Phase 5. Experience scenarios & interpret consequences In the second workshop the scenarios, personas and potential technologies are used as input to come up with new technological innovations. The best ideas will collectively be selected based on their fit to the participants’ expected evolution of the future and, according to their assessed development in time, placed on a roadmap between now and the future time horizon. As this roadmap builds upon environmental trends, guidelines and examples for ‘early warning signals’ of possible trend shifts are provided. These need to be monitored after finishing the scenario concept and discussed every six months with the internal workshop participants in order to decided whether the roadmap of technological ideas need to be adjusted or can remain the same. Phase 6. Create projecta’s Finally, the input for the idea generation and selection can be used to create enriched visualizations of the ideas. These so called projecta’s are to be created by the AIT members in collaboration with external creatives that have joined the workshops. Implementation At the end of the project, an implementation plan was written to administer the scenario concept within the organization. For internal communication purposes a movie and a manual were created.

“Pamoja” is a Swahili word that stands for “oneness” and it exactly refers to a state of being unified or whole under different circumstances. The meaning of this word offers a rich overview of people living in a country like Kenya, where a community-based society is predominant and crucial for their everyday life. Even if this graduation project is about a personal concern such as Oral Health and related disorders, the designer could not ignored that such a unity, combined with education and prevention, might actually bring to a tangible social change. THE TOPIC Maintaining good oral hygiene is one of the most important everyday practice people can do for their own teeth and gums. Healthy teeth not only enable people to look and feel good but they make it possible to eat and speak properly. Therefore, good oral health becomes an important factor of the overall well-being and physical appearance in our lives influencing as well social and interpersonal relationships. Unfortunately, in a developing country like Kenya, a constant personal hygiene is obstructed by several factors that can be enclosed under an “umbrella term” called Poverty. People from vulnerable communities usually cannot rely on health structures both from a sanitary and economical point of view, feeling forced to take care of their health by their own. Furthermore, having a proper oral hygiene is becoming day by day a marginal priority: it requires hygienic tools, clean water and constancy while most of the times families cannot face such expenses mainly because of a low and unstable daily income and a current raising costs of the basic goods on the market. RESEARCH METHOD Before starting the fieldwork in Kenya, a preliminary literature research was conducted in the Netherlands in order to explore the topic and prepare all the material needed to gather information from the final users. A set of cultural probes were created taking into consideration two categories of users: mothers and children. Although kids are the final users of the design, their parents have been involved in order to map the context and have a global overview of the social dynamics happening in a Kenyan slum. The adults were asked to share their life conditions through a card games and a photo elicitation session where 4 disposable cameras were provided to a group of families. Furthermore, 8 HIV positive single mothers, belonging to an educative program run by Jukumu Letu called PMTCT (Prevention Mother To Child Training) were the participants of a further session aimed to understand and report the level of awareness about Oral Health and related disorders and risks. Once the designer became aware of the entire context selected for the graduation project, different cultural probes combined with a constant observational research were applied to get in contact with the final users of the design: children from 5 to 7 years old attending the pre-unit class within the kindergarten. The selection of the target user has been done taking into consideration cognitive and creative characteristics, physical skills, socio-emotional and dental development of the participants. In order to understand their life, activities and tastes the designer proposed to them 6 drawing sessions: different topics have been illustrated starting from something familiar (house and family) until something more latent such as personal preferences in term of toys and heroes. The probe surprisingly offered more than expected allowing the designer to select as well the final context of application of his future design proposal: the school. Some sensitizing materials such as nursery rhymes or story telling have always preceded all the sessions and the probes listed before in order to introduce the topic to the participants. RESEARCH FINDINGS Kenyan people mainly consider Oral Health as having white and shining teeth instead of a lack of diseases or infections in their oral cavity. The idea of prevention is quite far: people cannot afford a visit to a dentist and they can only rely on the poor equipped dental offices offered by the governmental health centers. In terms of products, the most part of the families have toothbrushes in their shelters but they usually keep them in very bad conditions for a long period of time. The main problem is definitely related to the difficulty in affording regularly toothpaste for a family use. Even if the price of it is not extremely high (0,50€ for 25 ml), people look at it as a big expense during their shopping. Considering the few amount of dentifrice contained in the cheapest tubes and the large number of family members that characterized Kenyan families, toothpaste is almost an expense to face at least 2 times per week. This element represents the main obstacle for a constant oral hygiene also in the kindergartens where teachers and staff are in charge of purchasing and distributing dentifrice for more than a hundred children everyday. CONCEPTUALIZATION & EVALUATION On the basis of a list of requirements obtained by the findings exposed above, the designer developed different design solutions in order to fulfill the demand of his users. The first step was to create a natural toothpaste taking into account local and available resources: the formulation was ideated thanks to the supervision of a specialized doctor from the faculty of Pharmacy in Nairobi Hospital. After this stage, 3 different products and related mock-ups have been designed and evaluated within the kindergarten considering social dynamics and interaction of the users. At the end of the evaluation phase, a participatory design meeting with the teachers of the school allowed the designer to come up with a second list of design requirements aimed to empower and detail the final proposal. FINAL DESIGN & RECOMMENDATIONS The final design can be resumed in a new sustainable scenario for Kenyan kindergartens. The natural toothpaste previously developed is embedded in a design solution, a school dispenser, which allows children to make their own dentifrice everyday and keep their toothbrushes in an ordered and hygienic way. Almost all the ingredients will be planted in the school’s garden by the staff, saving money and offering at the same a “green” education to children. All the actors of the kindergarten are involved, starting from the younger ones that will have the role to transfer the knowledge acquired at home.

Every five years, China develops a long-term plan called Five Year Plan. In recent fifteen years, China’s rapid economic development with environmental issues is becoming increasingly important. Until China’s 12th Five Year plan in 2010, it explicitly pointed out to promote green energy and develop energy-efficient economy to keep the country’s economic growth. However, unlike the developed countries, low capacity of market surveillance and low-profit products output plus lacks of management experience which push China’s green industrial development had encountered a bottleneck for most of companies. State owned enterprises, large sized companies and small and medium sized companies (SMEs) have different attitudes regarding to develop green industry. State owned enterprises and large sized companies have its financial capability to cope with the development of green industry, SMEs have to face with the financial capacity, industry structure, as well as management issues in order to respond the new regulations. Therefore the international environmental service company CRS which engages in reprocess service in China is belonging to SMEs that face not only the same problems mentioned above, but also doing business in Chinese business environment. The company is the sole sponsor for the project. The purpose of the research is providing the possible operating contexts as well as the possible future in Chinese green market. Hereby the research is formulated as: How do institutional relationships promote the development of green industry in China? To answer the research questions, there are mainly three methodologies applied into the project, namely literature review, scenario analysis and interviews.

This master’s thesis is the advisory Real Estate Management Report for the future development strategy of the Dutch upscale department store, de Bijenkorf. Upscale department stores build its characteristic by having invited selected brands, and have specific target group who have higher purchasing power than average, and now de Bijenkorf is the only upscale department store brand in the Netherlands. To take care of its target customers, it has prepared for the commensurate assortment of brands with various departments for the customers’ tastes. As we realize that the department store itself has an image of an old fashioned retail format comparing to other newly developed retail formats, it may look decreasing retail business in these days. However, it still shows that the big retailer in the city center needs to be prepared more properly by predicting the future demands of the cities not only for their business profitability but also for the city’s image or branding. They need to keep this business and prepare more properly for the future. This report is not about how department stores can dominate the future retail market, but about how department stores sophisticatedly can keep and sustain their business more effectively into the retail market of the city. This is all about how to prepare the future of the department stores more strategically by providing research, business strategy, scenario planning and recommendation about efficient future transition of Dutch upscale department store chains, de Bijenkorf.

In the past decades there has been a steep increase in global trade. The current crises however emphasize that trends can change quickly and have a lasting effect on the economy. Due to their large, long term investments, ports in particular need a good understanding of the future state of transport and logistics systems. Scenario based modeling can assist in doing this. This thesis presents three distinctive scenarios, the modeling approach and the results. Each scenario has a different geographical orientation: global, regional and local. The scenario of ‘Globalization under Chinese influence’ shows a world where globalization continues with a new market leader being China. ‘Regional production’ characterizes a market driven world with production closer to the market and more flexible supply chains. Finally, ‘Local for Local’ shows what the effects are of a scenario where local production and trade prevails and global trade is dominated by raw materials. A case study is applied to determine the effects of the scenarios on the container throughput in the Port of Rotterdam, a modelling approach is applied. Trade flows are estimated using a growth model based on GDP and gravity. This classical but effective method was applied to predict global trade between all countries. The transportation model that was used has both a global scope as well as a detailed multi-modal hinterland for Europe.

Dit boek is een produkt van het Samenwerkingsverband Rijksgebouwendienst - Technische Universiteit Delft lBouwmanagement & Vastgoedbeheer

Providing electricity from renewable sources is of key importance both to reduce depletion of fossil fuels and reduce emissions of greenhouse gasses. Many of the renewable energy technologies are not ideal for electricity networks. Reservoir hydropower is one of the most ideal renewable sources as it can store energy efficiently, and can be made quickly available in cases of peak loads. Reservoir hydropower generation has considerable impact on the landscape. Reservoirs and dams are perhaps the most visible elements, but the effects of a regulated flow of rivers on the river ecosystem, and the ecology of the river banks, is considerable. In Sweden, hydropower has a long tradition of being an arena for environmental controversy. Historically, various river related economic interests collided, but nowadays river basin ecology and sports fisheries are important issues too. [cf. 1]. Swedish Government has high ambitions regarding climate change: it aims at becoming the first fossil free country within 40 years. Unlike the traditional image of Swedish society, there is no consensus on the hydropower issue but a fortified dissensus. Communication between the contestants is limited to regular clashes (accusations) in the media rather than sensible interaction between different stakeholders on basis of substance of the issues at stake. This paper describes a specific approach which brings together different stakeholders in an orchestrated and supported setting so that interaction between different stakeholders can take place on basis of the content and substance of various issues that are faced. The main aim of the workshop was to facilitate interaction through which the participants could gain a more substantive insight in each other’s positions and background arguments regarding different issues at hand. The interaction was supported by specific tools: External scenarios and value based scenarios were developed for analyzing the future of (hydro-) electricity production in Sweden. We evaluate specific learning effect of the participants as a measure of productivity of our approach. The attendance of the workshop was very good. Our post workshop evaluations show very encouraging results in terms of new insights in each other’s positions.

Team training should reflect the increasing complexity of decision-making environments. Guidelines for scenario-based training were adopted for a distributed setting and tested in a pilot training session with a distributed team in the offshore oil industry. Participants valued the scenario as challenging and useful, but also highlighted problems of distributed communication. The findings were used to improve the training as well as current use of the technology in the organisation. Research Although the findings are currently only based on one pilot, they provide insights for adopting scenario-based training for computer-rich, distributed settings. The research extends current scenario-based training towards distributed work arrangements in high-technology settings and provides practical advice to developers and implementers. If everyday work is computer-mediated, psychological fidelity cannot mean collocated/low-tech training; however it is worthwhile paying close attention to which aspects of technology are integrated into a training environment.

The Vlietzone is a large natural area at the edge of The Hague (South-Holland, The Netherlands). Surrounded by the highway A4 and A12 and the river Vliet it forms a secluded area. The municipality has selected this location for future expansion. It is the only large area availably within current city boundaries where expansion is allowed according to the ‘fifth spatial planning memorandum’ (vijfde nota ruimtelijke ordening). The goal of the project is to design a key intervention to gradually start development of the Vlietzone after 2020. The location of the Vlietzone makes a design based on transit oriented development (TOD) feasible and an interesting case to create a regional node for the Region Haaglanden. This graduation project focuses on the idea of TOD in Dutch spatial planning. Providing a design guided by 3 possible scenarios focused on the demand form different governmental institutions and regional and local opportunities. Choosing the most likely design location within the Vlietzone, develop this into a key intervention for further development after 2020 and create a node for the region based on TOD principles.

Conventionally, simulation of product behaviour is employed as a pre-realization type of assessment at the end of the design process, making only late feedback for improvement possible. Enabling the start of optimization in the conceptualization is expected to have significant influence on design efficiency. However, the available information at that stage is uncertain, incomplete, multifold and imprecise, which calls for new simulation techniques. This paper proposes nucleus-based modelling and simulation as a solution. A nucleus is a modelling entity to capture the relationships between the lowest level metric elements of the product and to represent the physical effects governing the behaviour of the product. Tolerating uncertainty, incompleteness, modality and imprecision, a nucleus-based model is able to provide an integral model of the actors of the use process. Simulations are controlled by so-called scenarios that arrange a logical structure of feasible situations for the integral model. The paper describes the content of the nucleus-based integral model and presents an application case study to illustrate the potentials of this new approach.

Climate change studies forWest Africa tend to predict a reduced potential for farming that will affect the food security situation of an already impoverished population. However, these studies largely ignore farmers’ adaptations and market adjustments that mitigate predicted negative effects. The paper attempts to fill some of this gap through a spatially explicit evaluation of the impact of climate change on farm income in the Oueme River Basin (ORB), Benin. The ORB is in many respects representative for the middle belt of West Africa where the predominantly sparse occupation leaves potential for migration from more densely populated areas. We apply a number of structural, spatially explicit relationships estimated for the whole territory of Benin to simulate conditions in the ORB proper that are similar to those currently prevailing in the drier North, and the more humid South. Our scenario results factor out for the main crops cultivated the constituent effects on yields, area, and revenue per ton. We find that under average climate change conditions the current low yields are not reduced, provided that cropping patterns are adjusted, while price increases partly compensate for the remaining adverse effects on farmer income. Consequently, without any policy intervention, farm incomes remain relatively stable, albeit at low levels and with increased occurrence of crop failures after extreme droughts. Scenario simulations show that there are also beneficial aspects that can, with adequate interventions, even turn losses into gains. Main channel for improvement would be the reduction of fallow, which is particularly promising because it requires few adjustments in prevailing farming practices, exploits the potential of uncultivated land and improves the water use efficiency. It also enables the Basin's capacity to absorb future migrant flows from more severely affected neighboring Sahelian areas.

The thesis presents a generic methodology able to generate optimal controlled dynamic prescriptive route guidance to be disseminated by means of variable message signs (VMS). The methodology is generic in the sense it can be used on any network topology, with any number of VMS's, for different scenario's (e.g. recurrent congestion or accidents), based on a flexible user defined objective function and will work as long as feasible route alternatives exist. i The methodology uses a new and for this purpose developed macroscopic model called DSMART (dynamic, 1^^ order, macroscopic, single user class, probit route choice, split vectors) and a customized parallel implemented evolutionary algorithm (EA). By using simulation data from the DSMART model in combination with customized mutation operators in the EA, VMS settings are generated in a smart way to increase convergence speed. A prototype ofthe methodology has been developed in Matlab and applied in a case study to the city of Rotterdam in the Netherlands by using a network representation (approx. 500 links) of the motorway with six different VMS's and the connected urban network. The case study illustrated the generic nature by successfully optimizing all three different scenarios ranging from the: everyday recurrent morning congestion, a simulated accident and an extreme event (football final match) by generating a dynamic set of VMS settings for all six instances. As a measure for optimization, the objective function was utilized to express tlie generalized gross travei time \N[)\ch led to a system optimal assignment. To implement the methodology, a rolling horizon control framework is suggested including a crude scenario manager This suggested type of scenario management could be able to reduce the usually astronomical high number of scenarios needed in other systems, to a workable amount. Based upon expected efficiency increase when professionally implemented in the suggested rolling horizon implementation, it is expected that optimal controlled VMS settings could be calculated online for the case study network.