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Scaling Up Uganda's Electricity Access

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Author: Namujju, L.D.
Mentor: Pruyt, E. · Yucel, G. · De Vries, L.J. · Thissen, W.
Faculty:Technology, Policy and Management
Department:Policy Analysis
Type:Master thesis
Date:2009-08-20
Keywords: System Dynamics model · Electricity access · Energy policy · Power supply
Rights: (c) 2009 Namujju, L.D.

Abstract

Access to power is tied to any country’s development. It provides opportunities for increased social welfare, education, health and income generating opportunities all of which Uganda needs. Uganda’s economic development is being stifled by power inaccessibility. Electricity access levels are as low as 9% nationally. The study was aimed at building a working theory on the internal setup and inner workings of Uganda’s power sector, using this theory to facilitate a better understanding of how elements of the power system contribute to the problem and the formulation of effective policies that take into account prevailing local conditions to remedy the situation. System dynamics methodology was applied to build a model showing how Uganda’s power sector is expected to evolve over a period of 80 years in terms of power supply and demand given the existing market structure and prevailing local conditions. Findings from the study show that while physical access to power is a big problem, major problems regarding the nature of power accessed exist for those consumers within the grid covered area: Insufficient power supply to meet an existing and growing power demand, an unreliable power supply and high power service costs. On top of the obvious reasons of Uganda’s lack of cheap high value primary energy resources, poor investment climate so few suppliers and limited negotiating power for the regulator, the study finds the biggest cause to be the nature of the existing capacity planning process in terms of how future capacity requirements are determined and the agreements made with generators as to how and when they fulfill their investment obligations. Policies to do with gradual targeted reduction of Uganda’s extremely high power losses, obligatory upfront capacity investment as opposed to spreading the investment over the period of the awarded concession, among others, are explored to determine their impact on system performance. The investigated policies highlight how slight changes to the capacity planning process requiring little or no investment could yield significant gains on the problems identified.