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The vulnerability of road networks: Now and in the future

Author: Snelder, M. · Tavasszy, L.A. · Immers, L.H. · Van Zuylen, H.J.
Faculty:Civil Engineering and Geosciences
Department:Transport en Planning
Type:Article in monograph or in proceedings
Publisher: TRAIL Research School
Source:10th TRAIL Congress: TRAIL in Perspective, October 2008
ISBN: 9789055841073
Keywords: vulnerability · robustness · incidents · road network · spare capacity
Rights: (c) 2008 The Author(s) · TRAIL Research School


Transport networks in major urban areas are becoming more and more vulnerable to unforeseen disturbances in transport networks, like incidents. For the near future, we expect an increasing number of incidents with a large impact due to the overall increase of the traffic load. In this paper the hypothesis is tested that, if no measures are taken, the impact of incidents increases in the future and, therefore, the vulnerability of the road network increases. It is shown that the current network of the area The Hague-Rotterdam in the Netherlands is already vulnerable. If the demand increases, the increase in total travel time is more than linear with the increase in demand in the situation without an incident. The impact of incidents also increases when the level of demand increases. This results in the overall conclusion that it is necessary to make the road network more robust.

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