Are collision and crossing course surrogate safety indicators transferable?

Are collision and crossing course surrogate safety indicators transferable?: A probability based approach using extreme value theory

Borsos, Attila (University of Győr)
Farah, H. (TU Delft Transport and Planning)
Laureshyn, Aliaksei (Lund University)
Hagenzieker, Marjan (TU Delft Transport and Planning)

2020

In order to overcome the shortcomings of crash data a number of surrogate measures of safety have been developed and proposed by various researchers. One of the most widely used temporal indicators is time-to-collision (TTC) which requires the road users to be on a collision course. Road users that are strictly speaking not on a collision course actually might behave and take evasive actions as if they were, thus indicating that such near-miss situations might also be relevant for safety analysis. Taking that into account, a more flexible indicator T₂, which does not require the two vehicles to be on a collision course, describes the expected time for the second road user to arrive at the conflict point. Recently extreme value theory (EVT) offering two approaches, block maxima (BM) and Peak over Threshold (POT), has been applied in combination with surrogate indicators to estimate crash probabilities. Most of this research has focused on testing BM and POT as well as validating various surrogate safety indicators by comparing model estimates to actual crash frequencies. The comparison of collision course indicators with indicators including crossing course interactions and their performance using EVT has not been investigated yet. In this study we are seeking answers to under what conditions these indicators perform better and whether they are transferable. Using data gathered at a signalized intersection focusing on left-turning and straight moving vehicle interactions our analysis concluded that the two indicators are transferable with stricter threshold values for T₂ and that POT gives more reasonable results.

Collision and crossing course
Crash probability
Extreme value theory
Surrogate measures of safety

http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:11e073e6-dec6-42ab-ab92-d7490cc23238

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2020.105517

2020-11-29

0001-4575

Accident Analysis & Prevention, 143

Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository ‘You share, we take care!’ – Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public.

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© 2020 Attila Borsos, H. Farah, Aliaksei Laureshyn, Marjan Hagenzieker