Flood risk assessment for road infrastructures using bayesian networks

Flood risk assessment for road infrastructures using bayesian networks: Case study of santarem - portugal

Arango, E.A. (University of Minho)
Santamaria, Monica (University of Minho)
Nogal Macho, M. (TU Delft Integral Design & Management)
Sousa, Helder S. (University of Minho)
Matos, Jose C. (University of Minho)

Sykora, Miroslav (editor)
Lenner, Roman (editor)
de Koker, Nico (editor)

2022

Assessing flood risks on road infrastructures is critical for the definition of mitigation strategies and adaptation processes. Some efforts have been made to conduct a regional flood risk assessment to support the decision-making process of exposed areas. However, these approaches focus on the physical damage of civil infrastructures without considering indirect impacts resulting from social aspects or traffic delays due to the functionality loss of transportation infrastructures. Moreover, existing methodologies do not include a proper assessment of the uncertainties involved in the risk quantification. This work aims to provide a consistent quantitative flood risk estimation and influence factor modelling for road infrastructures. To this end, a Flood Risk Factor (FRF) is computed as a function of hazard, vulnerability, and infrastructure importance factors. A Bayesian Network (BN) is constructed for considering the interdependencies among the selected input factors, as well as accounting for the uncertainties involved in the modelling process. The proposed approach allows weighting the relevant factors differently to compute the FRF and improves the understanding of the causal relations between them. The suggested method is applied to a case study located in the region of Santarem Portugal, allowing the identification of the sub-basins where the road network has the highest risks and illustrating the potential of Bayesian inference techniques for updating the model when new information becomes available.

Bayesian networks
decision-making
flood risk assessment
road networks

http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:1e6fa53e-e35d-4bb0-b5d6-48df937f64cb

https://doi.org/10.14311/APP.2022.36.0033

Czech Sustainable Building Society Czech Technical University in Prague Klokner Institute of Czech Technical University in Prague IISBE, CIB, UNEP

2023-02-18

9788001070352

International Probabilistic Workshop 2022, IPW 2022

19th International Probabilistic Workshop, IPW 2022, 2022-09-08 → 2022-09-09, Stellenbosch, South Africa

Acta Polytechnica CTU Proceedings, 2336-5382, 36

Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository ‘You share, we take care!’ – Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public.

Institutional Repository

conference paper

© 2022 E.A. Arango, Monica Santamaria, M. Nogal Macho, Helder S. Sousa, Jose C. Matos