Can passenger flow distribution be estimated solely based on network properties in public transport systems?

Can passenger flow distribution be estimated solely based on network properties in public transport systems?

Luo, D. (TU Delft Transport and Planning)
Cats, O. (TU Delft Transport and Planning)
van Lint, J.W.C. (TU Delft Transport and Planning)

2019

We present a pioneering investigation into the relation between passenger flow distribution and network properties in public transport systems. The methodology is designed in a reverse engineering fashion by utilizing passively measured passenger flow dynamics over the entire network. We quantify the properties of public transport networks using a range of centrality indicators in the topological representations of public transport networks with both infrastructure and service layers considered. All the employed indicators, which originate from complex network science, are interpreted in the context of public transport systems. Regression models are further developed to capture the correlative relation between passenger flow distribution and several centrality indicators that are selected based on the correlation analysis. The primary finding from the case study on the tram networks of The Hague and Amsterdam is that the selected network properties can indeed be used to approximate passenger flow distribution in public transport systems to a reasonable extent. Notwithstanding, no causality is implied, as the correlation may also reflect how well the supply allocation caters for the underlying demand distribution. The significance and relevance of this study stems from two aspects: (1) the unraveled relation provides a parsimonious alternative to existing passenger assignment models that require many assumptions on the basis of limited data; (2) the resulting model offers efficient quick-scan decision support capabilities that can help transport planners in tactical planning decisions.

Centrality
Complex network science
Network properties
Passenger flow distribution
Public transport systems
Topology

http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:26640156-6742-41c0-9cb8-f51d5a1d3da0

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11116-019-09990-w

0049-4488

Transportation, 47 (2020) (6), 2757-2776

Institutional Repository

journal article

© 2019 D. Luo, O. Cats, J.W.C. van Lint