Print Email Facebook Twitter Probabilistic downtime estimation for sequential marine operations Title Probabilistic downtime estimation for sequential marine operations Author Bruijn, Willem E.L. (Royal Boskalis Westminster; Student TU Delft) Rip, Jolien (Royal Boskalis Westminster; Student TU Delft) Hendriks, Antoon J.H. (Royal Boskalis Westminster) van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M. (TU Delft Safety and Security Science) Jonkman, Sebastiaan N. (TU Delft Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk) Date 2019 Abstract A marine project consists of series of operations, with each operation subject to a predefined operational limit and duration. If actual weather conditions exceed the operational limit, the operation cannot be executed and hence downtime occurs. An accurate assessment of uncertainties and the expected downtime during a marine project is important in the tender and execution phase. This paper proposes a new probabilistic model for downtime estimation. It utilizes linked Markov chains that use actual metocean conditions to produce binary workability sequences for each operation. Synthetic time-series can be generated based on the statistics of the past observations and more project simulations are realizable, reducing the simulation uncertainty. The capabilities and limitations of the proposed approach are illustrated in a case study for a hypothetical project in the Tasman Sea. Subject ChainsDowntimeLinkedMarine project operationsMarkov theoryOffshoreProbabilitySequencesSimulationSyntheticTime seriesWorkability To reference this document use: http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:3b949e22-9fe3-4f31-b9b4-14ede273eb39 DOI https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apor.2019.02.014 Embargo date 2019-09-13 ISSN 0141-1187 Source Applied Ocean Research, 86, 257-267 Bibliographical note Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository ‘You share, we take care!’ – Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public. Part of collection Institutional Repository Document type journal article Rights © 2019 Willem E.L. Bruijn, Jolien Rip, Antoon J.H. Hendriks, P.H.A.J.M. van Gelder, Sebastiaan N. Jonkman Files PDF 1_s2.0_S0141118718305613_main.pdf 5.88 MB Close viewer /islandora/object/uuid:3b949e22-9fe3-4f31-b9b4-14ede273eb39/datastream/OBJ/view