Predicting the Diffusion of Technology in the Market Adaptation Phase

Predicting the Diffusion of Technology in the Market Adaptation Phase

Mutapcic, O.

Ortt, J.R. (mentor)
Rook, L. (mentor)
Kwee, Z. (mentor)

Technology, Policy and Management

Technology, Strategy and Entrepreneurship

2012-03-27

Introduction of a new product in the market brings new opportunities to a company but also involves many risks. Many companies cease to exist in this turbulent period, even before the technology reaches mass-diffusion. In this study we look at the processes in the period of pre-diffusion and in particular in the market adaptation phase. With this thesis, we try to identify the set of most important variables at play and use this set to model these processes. We use this to provide an answer on how to successfully predict the length of the market adaptation phase, with the data available at/or prior to the start of the phase. Three different approaches were tried: the simple audit, extended audit and Monte Carlo simulation. Our findings indicate that there is no single/basic, minimum and universal set of variables suitable for prediction/modeling. Rather, the minimum set of variables depends on the type of model, type of industry, complexity and the number of available data. Furthermore, we show that the performance of the models heavily depends on the amount of the data available. The main conclusion of this thesis is that a successful prediction of the length of the market adaptation phase is indeed possible but that it requires a careful consideration of quality and availability of the data, the choice of variables for modeling, initial conditions of the model and the choice of the model itself. In our case, the implementation of the Monte Carlo algorithm in the simulation of the process proved to provide the best results.

pre-diffusion
high-tech
simulation

http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:472c6f99-18a9-494c-b526-5b9b986df0e3

2013-03-01

Campus only

Student theses

master thesis

(c) 2012 Mutapcic, O.