Impacts of Tropical Cyclones on the Caribbean Under Future Climate Conditions

Impacts of Tropical Cyclones on the Caribbean Under Future Climate Conditions

Kleptsova, Olga S. (Universiteit Utrecht)
Dijkstra, Henk A. (Universiteit Utrecht)
van Westen, René M. (Universiteit Utrecht)
van der Boog, C.G. (TU Delft Hydraulic Engineering)
Katsman, C.A. (TU Delft Hydraulic Engineering)
James, Rebecca K. (Universiteit Utrecht)
Bouma, Tjeerd J. (Universiteit Utrecht)
Klees, R. (TU Delft Physical and Space Geodesy)
Riva, R.E.M. (TU Delft Physical and Space Geodesy)
Slobbe, D.C. (TU Delft Physical and Space Geodesy)
Zijlema, M. (TU Delft Hydraulic Engineering)
Pietrzak, J.D. (TU Delft Hydraulic Engineering)

Hydraulic Engineering

2021

Joint effects of the dynamic sea-level rise projected changes in the large-scale atmosphere/ocean circulation, and wave climate on hurricane-induced extreme water levels in the Caribbean region are assessed. We use the 2D-depth integrated ADCIRC + SWAN wave-ocean model, baroclinically coupled to an ocean-eddying version of the Community Earth System Model, to compare impacts of the September 2017 hurricanes with projected impacts of similar hypothetical tropical storms occurring in the future. The model predicts only minor changes in the hurricane-induced extreme water levels for those Caribbean islands which were severely devastated by the 2017 tropical storms (Irma and Maria). That is, provided that the hurricane intensity remains at the present-day level, the global mean sea-level rise is the main future coastal flood risk factor.

http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:55474b3c-2879-4bed-94ef-36f17a81bc09

https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JC016869

2022-02-20

2169-9275

Journal Of Geophysical Research-Oceans, 126 (9)

Institutional Repository

journal article

© 2021 Olga S. Kleptsova, Henk A. Dijkstra, René M. van Westen, C.G. van der Boog, C.A. Katsman, Rebecca K. James, Tjeerd J. Bouma, R. Klees, R.E.M. Riva, D.C. Slobbe, M. Zijlema, J.D. Pietrzak