Title
Exploring the effects of perception errors and anticipation strategies on traffic accidents - A simulation study
Author
van Lint, J.W.C. (TU Delft Transport and Planning) 
Calvert, S.C. (TU Delft Transport and Planning)
Schakel, W.J. (TU Delft Transport and Planning)
Wang, M. (TU Delft Transport and Planning)
Verbraeck, A. (TU Delft Policy Analysis)
Date
2018
Abstract
It is remarkable that drivers (on average) can safely navigate through dense traffic at high speeds—conditions in which the time headways between vehicles are in the same order of magnitude as human reaction times. One explanation for this is the ability of drivers to anticipate on the traffic conditions in their surroundings. In this paper, we study, through simulation, the effects of reaction times, errors in perception and anticipation on the probability of accidents on freeways. To this end we extend an existing model for car following and lane changing with a perception and anticipation model inspired by Ensley’s three levels of situational awareness (perception, understanding and projection). By systematically varying driving behavior with different reaction times over a range of perception errors, and anticipation strategies, we compute efficiency effects (capacity and total time spent) and safety effects (the probability density of accidents happening as a function of these different contributing factors and errors). The results provide some evidence that safe driving is robust with respect to perception errors under simple anticipation strategies and small reaction times. When reaction times grow larger, more advanced anticipation strategies are needed to guarantee safe driving.
Subject
Anticipation strategies
Awareness
Driving behavior
Perception errors
Traffic safety
To reference this document use:
http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:630f93ed-0956-448a-8408-490ddd32b4e8
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-60591-3_23
Publisher
Springer
Embargo date
2022-02-02
ISBN
9783319605906
Source
Proceedings of the AHFE 2017 International Conference on Human Factors in Simulation and Modeling, 2017, 591
Event
AHFE 2017 International Conference on Human Factors in Simulation and Modeling, 2017, 2017-07-17 → 2017-07-21, Los Angeles, United States
Series
Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing, 2194-5357, 591
Bibliographical note
Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository ‘You share, we take care!’ – Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public.
Part of collection
Institutional Repository
Document type
conference paper
Rights
© 2018 J.W.C. van Lint, S.C. Calvert, W.J. Schakel, M. Wang, A. Verbraeck