Print Email Facebook Twitter Probabilistic downtime analysis for complex marine projects Title Probabilistic downtime analysis for complex marine projects: Development of a modular Markov model that generates binary workability sequences for sequential marine operations Author Bruijn, Willem (TU Delft Civil Engineering and Geosciences; TU Delft Hydraulic Engineering) Contributor Jonkman, Sebastiaan N. (mentor) van Gelder, Pieter (mentor) Morales Napoles, Oswaldo (mentor) Hendriks, A.J.H. (mentor) Degree granting institution Delft University of Technology Date 2017-10-20 Abstract A complex marine project consist of series of operations, with each operation subject to a predefined operational limit and duration, depending on the equipment being used. If actual weather conditions exceed the operational limit, then the operation cannot be executed and hence downtime occurs. It is up to contractors, such as Boskalis, to accurately estimate the expected downtime in order to determine the project costs. Recently, anew tool has been developed to make downtime assessments by using the Markov theory: the so-called `Downtime-Modular-Markov model' (DMM-model). It abstracts the actual metocean conditions by stochastically producing binary `workability sequences' for each operation, where a distinction has been made between workable and non-workable states given an operational limit. The Markov statistics of the model are based on the characteristics of the observed metocean conditions. Complex marine project simulations are realizable based on these statistics. The purpose of this thesis is to develop the DMM-model for which a software-testing process is applied. In the verification phase the concept and the code of the model are checked on correctness, consistency and completeness. Subsequently, the validation phase addresses to the quality of the model. Three different metocean datasets are used to test the model and its individual modules whether they perform sufficiently accurate. The most important findings of both phases are tackled in the improvement \& extension phase. Adjustments made during this last phase bring the DMM-model to a new state-of-the-art. It is recommended for further study to conduct an uncertainty analysis (quantify the model and parametric uncertainty). Subject Complex marine projectoperationoperational limitdowntimeMarkov theoryDowntime-Modular-Markov modelworkability sequencessimulationsoftware-testingverificationvalidationimprovementextension To reference this document use: http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:636bdd6f-90be-4163-bf12-3f935585cf4e Embargo date 2018-10-20 Part of collection Student theses Document type master thesis Rights © 2017 Willem Bruijn Files PDF MSc_Thesis_Probabilistic_ ... ojects.pdf 16.42 MB Close viewer /islandora/object/uuid:636bdd6f-90be-4163-bf12-3f935585cf4e/datastream/OBJ/view