Probability-dependent failure modes of slopes and cuts in heterogeneous cohesive soils

van den Eijnden, A.P.; Hicks, M.A.

doi:10.1680/jgele.18.00043

Probability-dependent failure modes of slopes and cuts in heterogeneous cohesive soils

Title

Probability-dependent failure modes of slopes and cuts in heterogeneous cohesive soils

Author

van den Eijnden, A.P. (TU Delft Geo-engineering)
Hicks, M.A. (TU Delft Geoscience and Engineering)

Department

Geoscience and Engineering

Date

2018-01-01

Abstract

Improbable slope failure is addressed in the framework of reliability analysis of slopes in heterogeneous cohesive soils, as the small subset of realisations that fail without additional measures to trigger failure. The mode of these slope failures, located at the weak tail of the reliability curve, is demonstrated to differ significantly from the deterministic solution as well as the stochastic average solution found when shear strength reduction is applied to trigger slope failure. Subset simulation is applied to compute the probability-dependent difference in failure mode for a range of slopes down to very low levels of probability, which is required to properly account for the actual failure in predominantly safe slopes. The results demonstrate possible differences in the mode of failure when properly accounting for the uncertainty in spatial variability in a full probabilistic slope stability analysis, and highlight that caution may be needed when using the strength reduction method.

Subject

Numerical modelling
Slopes
Statistical analysis

To reference this document use:

http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:8911123f-a3cb-4f73-ac6d-1718420d8384

DOI

https://doi.org/10.1680/jgele.18.00043

Embargo date

2019-11-01

ISSN

2045-2543

Source

Geotechnique Letters (Online), 8 (3), 214-218