Impact analysis of Capesize vessels on ArcelorMittal Ghent

Impact analysis of Capesize vessels on ArcelorMittal Ghent

van Erp, Huub (TU Delft Civil Engineering and Geosciences)

Buxton, M.W.N. (mentor)
Soleymani Shishvan, M. (graduation committee)
van Hassel, E.B.H.J. (graduation committee)
van Hove, An (graduation committee)

Delft University of Technology

Applied Earth Sciences

2021-04-30

The enlargement of the lock complex of Terneuzen in 2023 will allow Capesize vessels up to 300 meters in length, to access the Ghent-Terneuzen canal and reach the quay of ArcelorMittal Ghent (AMG). The goal of this thesis is to estimate to what extent these vessels can be used, the impact that these vessels will have on the supply chain and the cost impact of the implementation of Capesize vessels. The production of AMG is expected to be increased up to 5.5 million ton of steel for 2026. Therefore, it will require an estimated 12.9 million ton of raw materials (12% increase compared to 2019) which mainly consist of iron ore and coal. Up to 31% of this material can be shipped from source ports that are accessible by Capesize vessels. The draught restriction of 12.5 meters for the canal, limits the amount of bulk material that can be unloaded by the Capesize vessel to 105,000 DWT which is 60% of the maximum of 175,000 DWT. The remaining 70,000 tons of material can be unloaded externally and be transported to AMG by the use of inland barging vessels. The increased volume of Capesize vessels compared to the current Panamax vessels will lead to an increase in load size and a decrease in load frequency which will affect the downstream installations of AMG. Most of the current quay cranes will be unable to unload Capesize vessels due to the increased size of the ships. A proposed crane was introduced in the model to examine the ideal positioning to unload Capesize vessels and barges. 6 realistic scenarios for 2026 have been examined with varying levels of Capesize utilization. As a result of these scenarios vessel arrival lists for full year were simulated. Each of the vessel lists served as input data on a quay model with as results the downstream impact. The main output parameters were the waiting time for sea vessels, waiting time for barges and the amount of material that had to be stored on a temporary storage. In general, the implementation had a negative effect on all three of the output parameters resulting in additional quay costs. The net effect of Capesize vessels on the total costs was positive thanks to the lower shipping price per ton of material. This benefit was partly compensated by the increased costs for barging that was caused by Capesize transport. The shipping costs for Capesize vessels should at least be 2.53 dollar per ton cheaper, to break-even with Panamax vessels. Under current circumstances the full-scale use of Capesize vessels can be feasible. However due the high volatility of the dry bulk market and bunker prices, it is impossible to guarantee this will be the case for 2026.

Capesize
Vessel Logistics
Ferrous Industry
Supply Chain

http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:8f5705b2-7c5b-418d-b63b-f0a21ba4b27f

2022-04-30

Student theses

master thesis

© 2021 Huub van Erp