Coping with uncertainties

Coping with uncertainties: A multi case study on policies within ITS projects

Houthoff, Romke (TU Delft Technology, Policy and Management)

Pesch, Udo (mentor)
Annema, Jan Anne (mentor)

Delft University of Technology

Management of Technology (MoT)

2017-08-31

Every year new Intelligent Transportation System (ITS) projects are initiated by governmental institutes. The Dutch government - for example - recently invested € 70 million to look for technological opportunities in the ITS market. However, although significant sums are invested, the return in realized projects is limited. This is because the ITS projects don’t produce adequate results.
But what causes these inadequate results? The literature implies that, along the process of ITS-projects, a number of challenging issues tend to surface. Policymakers seemingly do not know how to cope with these issues. Examples of these issues are amongst others: (1) uncertainty about the technological performance of the system, (2) an unclear vision of the potential of the system in the market, and (3) potential hurdles in the collaboration process between relevant project stakeholders.
These indications show that ITS projects are subject to a considerable degree of uncertainty. More knowledge about uncertainties looming up during ITS projects, and information of adequate reactions for policymakers on this phenomenon can be of great help to produce more satisfactory project results. Hence, this thesis explores the different types of uncertainties and subsequently aims in providing insights in how policymakers can cope more effectively with these different types of uncertainties.
This thesis starts with the examination of three correlated factors, namely 1) the number and types of uncertainties emerging in ITS projects, 2) the extent of awareness of policymakers on these uncertainties, and 3) the way policymakers tend to act in the face of uncertainties.
By means of three ex-post case studies, insights were obtained on these factors. After analysing these three cases, thirteen different uncertainties were identified and distinguished. The policymakers in these ITS-projects were only partly aware of those uncertainties. I analysed five situations of uncertainty ‘unawareness’. From those five ‘unawareness’ factors, four had an impact on the outcome of the project. This emphasizes the importance of awareness among policymakers of the different types of uncertainty.
In addition, based on policy guidelines supplied by the literature, I evaluated the way policymakers acted when coming across uncertainties. This evaluation showed that policymakers didn’t follow adequate strategies to cope with the different values of uncertainties. Even worse, more than once uncertainties were deliberately ignored. Policymakers tend not to know how to deal with uncertainties in ITS projects and to ignore them.
When policymakers do not ignore uncertainties, they tend to follow strategies and policies that are inadequate to cope with the different types of uncertainties. When comparing the findings of these three case studies with the suggestions made by the literature, we deduce that there is a lack of knowledge on ITS-project policymakers can act effectively when coming across uncertainties. My case studies support the suggestions of the literature that policymakers do not know how to cope effectively with uncertainties in ITS projects.
The conclusion of this thesis entails, that knowledge and awareness amongst ITS policymakers of the different uncertainties would be a first step in the direction towards more robust policymaking. In addition, policymakers should adopt more active strategies in anticipation of the different types of uncertainties. When coming across an uncertainty during the project, the selection of an appropriate strategy should be based on the type, and the extent of complexity within the uncertainty. The same accounts for policies. Based on a theoretical framework of uncertainties, policymakers should adopt a more appropriate policy in order to cope with them.

Policymakers
Uncertainty
Policies
Strategies
Intelligent Transport Systems
ITS
Case study
Unawareness

http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:8ff133dd-d3f0-41c1-abde-b777317c2d0a

Because of confidential information, explicit interviews are excluded in the appendices. For information on the interviews, feel free to contact the author. For contact information, also see the thesis file.

Student theses

master thesis

© 2017 Romke Houthoff