Predicting marsh vulnerability to sea-level rise using Holocene relative sea-level data

Title

Predicting marsh vulnerability to sea-level rise using Holocene relative sea-level data

 Author

Horton, Benjamin P. (Nanyang Technological University)
Shennan, Ian (Durham University)
Bradley, S.L. (TU Delft Physical and Space Geodesy)
Cahill, Niamh (University College Dublin)
Kirwan, Matthew (Virginia Institute of Marine Science)
Kopp, Robert E. (Rutgers University)
Shaw, Timothy A. (Nanyang Technological University)

Date

2018-12-01

 Abstract

Tidal marshes rank among Earth's vulnerable ecosystems, which will retreat if future rates of relative sea-level rise (RSLR) exceed marshes' ability to accrete vertically. Here, we assess the limits to marsh vulnerability by analyzing >780 Holocene reconstructions of tidal marsh evolution in Great Britain. These reconstructions include both transgressive (tidal marsh retreat) and regressive (tidal marsh expansion) contacts. The probability of a marsh retreat was conditional upon Holocene rates of RSLR, which varied between -7.7 and 15.2 mm/yr. Holocene records indicate that marshes are nine times more likely to retreat than expand when RSLR rates are ≥7.1 mm/yr. Coupling estimated probabilities of marsh retreat with projections of future RSLR suggests a major risk of tidal marsh loss in the twenty-first century. All of Great Britain has a >80% probability of a marsh retreat under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 by 2100, with areas of southern and eastern England achieving this probability by 2040.

 To reference this document use:

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 DOI

doi:10.1038/s41467-018-05080-0

 Source

Nature Communications, volume 9, issue 1

 ISSN

2041-1723

 Part of collection

Institutional Repository

 Document type

journal article

 Rights

© 2018 Benjamin P. Horton, Ian Shennan, S.L. Bradley, Niamh Cahill, Matthew Kirwan, Robert E. Kopp, Timothy A. Shaw