Expert judgment in life-cycle degradation and maintenance modelling for steel bridges

Expert judgment in life-cycle degradation and maintenance modelling for steel bridges

Kosgodagan, A (École des Mines de Nantes; TNO)
Morales Napoles, O. (TU Delft Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk)
Maljaars, J (Eindhoven University of Technology)
Courage, W (TNO)

Bakker, Jaap (editor)
Frangopol, Dan M. (editor)
van Breugel, Klaas (editor)

2016

Markov-based models for predicting deterioration for civil infrastructures are widely recognized as suitable tools addressing this mechanism. The objective of this paper is to provide insights regarding a network of orthotropic steel bridges in terms of degradation. Consequently, a model combining a dynamic Bayesian network and a Markov chain is first introduced that builds up the network in a concise way. In an attempt to represent a network composed of two general classes of orthotropic steel bridges, the classical method of structured expert judgment is carried out as a quantification procedure. The first objective is to indirectly elicit transition probabilities for a Markov chain that probabilistically describes how each type bridge temporally deteriorates. Second, experts are asked to provide estimates on required conditional probabilities related to the Bayesian network. An in-depth analysis of the results is presented so that remarks and observations are subsequently pointed out and, finally conclusions are drawn.

http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:93c65033-d82b-4144-95df-2a4f270f5f4c

https://doi.org/10.1201/9781315375175-313

CRC Press

978-1-138-02847-0

IALCCE 2016: The Fifth International Symposium on Life-Cycle Civil Engineering, 16-19 September 2016: Life-Cycle of Engineering Systems: Emphasis on Sustainable Civil Infrastructure

5th International Symposium on Life-Cycle Engineering, 2016-10-16 → 2016-10-20, Delft, Netherlands

Institutional Repository

conference paper

© 2016 A Kosgodagan, O. Morales Napoles, J Maljaars, W Courage