Risk assessment of high-speed rail projects

Risk assessment of high-speed rail projects: A risk coupling model based on system dynamics

Xue, Yutong (Chongqing University)
Xiang, Pengcheng (Chongqing University)
Jia, Fuyuan (Chongqing University)
Liu, Z. (TU Delft Integral Design & Management)

2020

Due to their characteristics and multiple objectives, high-speed rail (HSR) projects carry more complex risks than conventional projects and high correlation and conductivity are among the associated risk factors. Previous risk assessment frameworks for rail infrastructure have ignored the effects of risk interactions that inflate risk levels, namely, risk coupling effects. Based on a system dynamics method, this paper develops a risk coupling model for HSR project risk assessments. A risk factor list is established from a literature review, and relationships analysed using a case study and expert interviews. System dynamics equations are constructed and their parameters obtained by expert evaluations of risk factors. The proposed model is applied to a real-world HSR project to demonstrate it in detail. The model can evaluate the risk levels of HSR projects during a simulation period. In particular, it can identify the key coupling effects that are the main increased risk. It provides a significant resource, using which HSR project managers can identify and mitigate risks.

Dynamic risk
High-speed rail
Risk assessment
Risk coupling
Risk interaction
System dynamics

http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:96c10503-3c1f-4e01-94da-fd74e7de5b05

https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17155307

1661-7827

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 17 (15), 1-27

Institutional Repository

journal article

© 2020 Yutong Xue, Pengcheng Xiang, Fuyuan Jia, Z. Liu