Print Email Facebook Twitter The geopolitical impact of the shale revolution Title The geopolitical impact of the shale revolution: Exploring consequences on energy prices and rentier states Author Auping, Willem L. (TU Delft Policy Analysis) Pruyt, E. (TU Delft Policy Analysis) de Jong, Sijbren (The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies) Kwakkel, J.H. (TU Delft Policy Analysis) Date 2016 Abstract While the shale revolution was largely a US’ affair, it affects the global energy system. In this paper, we look at the effects of this spectacular increase in natural gas, and oil, extraction capacity can have on the mix of primary energy sources, on energy prices, and through that on internal political stability of rentier states. We use two exploratory simulation models to investigate the consequences of the combination of both complexity and uncertainty in relation to the global energy system and state stability. Our simulations show that shale developments could be seen as part of a long term hog-cycle, with a short term drop in oil prices if unconventional supply substitutes demand for oil. These lower oil prices may lead to instability in rentier states neighbouring the EU, especially when dependence on oil and gas income is high, youth bulges are present, or buffers like sovereign wealth funds are too limited to bridge the negative economic effects of temporary low oil prices. Subject Energy mixEnergy pricesExploratory modellingShale revolutionState stabilitySystem Dynamics To reference this document use: http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:993d9b3e-8f85-44b0-898e-3a9ae0335f26 DOI https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2016.08.032 ISSN 0301-4215 Source Energy Policy, 98, 390-399 Bibliographical note Accepted author manuscript Part of collection Institutional Repository Document type journal article Rights © 2016 Willem L. Auping, E. Pruyt, Sijbren de Jong, J.H. Kwakkel Files PDF 1_s2.0_S0301421516304578_main.pdf 1.38 MB Close viewer /islandora/object/uuid:993d9b3e-8f85-44b0-898e-3a9ae0335f26/datastream/OBJ/view