Optimizing historic preservation under climate change

Optimizing historic preservation under climate change: Decision support for cultural resource adaptation planning in national parks

Xiao, Xiao (Hainan University; Arizona State University)
Seekamp, Erin (University of North Carolina)
van der Burg, Max Post (U.S. Geological Survey Center)
Eaton, Mitchell (U.S. Geological Survey Center)
Fatorić, Sandra (TU Delft OLD History of Architecture & Urban Planning)
McCreary, Allie (Western Kentucky University)

2019

Climate change poses great challenges for cultural resource management, particularly in coastal areas. Cultural resources, such as historic buildings, in coastal areas are vulnerable to climate impacts including inundation, deterioration, and destruction from sea-level rise and storm-related flooding and erosion. However, research that assesses the trade-offs between actions for protecting vulnerable and valuable cultural resources under budgetary constraints is limited. This study focused on developing a decision support model for managing historic buildings at Cape Lookout National Seashore. We designed the Optimal Preservation Decision Support (OptiPres) model to: (a) identify optimal, annual adaptation actions for historic buildings across a 30-year planning horizon, (b) quantify trade-offs between different actions and the timing of adaptation actions under constrained budgets, and (c) estimate the effectiveness of budget allocations on the resource value of historic buildings. Our analysis of the model suggests that: (1) funding allocation thresholds may exist for national parks to maintain the historical significance and use potential of historic buildings under climate change, (2) the quantitative assessment of trade-offs among alternative adaptation actions provides generalizable guidance for decision makers about the dynamics of their managed system, and (3) the OptiPres model can identify cost-efficient approaches to allocate funding to maintain the historical value of buildings vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Therefore, the OptiPres model, while not designed as a prescriptive decision tool, allows managers to understand the consequences of proposed adaptation actions. The OptiPres model can guide park managers to make cost-effective climate adaptation decisions for historic buildings more transparently and robustly.

Climate adaptation
Cultural resource management
Decision analysis
Historic preservation
National park
Optimization model

http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:a63e6d3b-7a77-448e-8374-9b0aaefb8536

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2019.02.011

2019-08-22

0264-8377

Land Use Policy, 83, 379-389

Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository ‘You share, we take care!’ – Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public.

Institutional Repository

journal article

© 2019 Xiao Xiao, Erin Seekamp, Max Post van der Burg, Mitchell Eaton, Sandra Fatorić, Allie McCreary