Print Email Facebook Twitter Flood modelling: Parameterisation and inflow uncertainty Title Flood modelling: Parameterisation and inflow uncertainty Author Mukolwe, M.M. Di Baldassarre, G. Werner, M. Solomatine, D.P. Faculty Civil Engineering and Geosciences Department Water Management Date 2014-01-01 Abstract This paper presents an analysis of uncertainty in hydraulic modelling of floods, focusing on the inaccuracy caused by inflow errors and parameter uncertainty. In particular, the study develops a method to propagate the uncertainty induced by, firstly, application of a stage–discharge rating curve and, secondly, parameterisation of a onedimensional hydraulic model by way of the power function and the conditioning of Manning’s roughness coefficients. The proposed methodology was applied to a 98 km reach of the River Po, Italy. Model performance was evaluated using two independent sets of observed water levels in the river reach within a generalised likelihood uncertainty estimation framework. The inflow uncertainty was found to have a greater contribution to the overall uncertainty of the 1D model than the roughness parameters. Independent parameter conditioning and validation, as well as the uncertainty analysis, showed satisfactory model performance. When conditioned on one flood event, the model adequately simulated flood levels and high water marks for another (independent) event, as the observations were within 90% confidence interval of the simulation ensemble. Subject floodsfloodworks/hydraulicshydrodynamics/river engineering To reference this document use: http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:b7e1367c-cff1-4863-9a15-55bb3eb39134 Publisher ICE Publishing ISSN 1741-7589 Source https://doi.org/10.1680/wama.12.00087 Source Proceedings of the ICE - Water Management, 167 (1), 2014 Part of collection Institutional Repository Document type journal article Rights (c) 2013 ICE Publishing Files PDF 303322.pdf 221.63 KB Close viewer /islandora/object/uuid:b7e1367c-cff1-4863-9a15-55bb3eb39134/datastream/OBJ/view