Leveraging the Wisdom of the Crowds

Leveraging the Wisdom of the Crowds

van Steijn, Jeroen (TU Delft Electrical Engineering, Mathematics and Computer Science)
Droogh, Marc (TU Delft Electrical Engineering, Mathematics and Computer Science)
Dam, Erwin (TU Delft Electrical Engineering, Mathematics and Computer Science)

Dörr, C. (mentor)
Pawełczak, Przemysław (graduation committee)

Delft University of Technology

Computer Science and Engineering

2020-07-01

Wisdom of the crowds is the idea that groups of people can collectively make wise decisions. Research suggests that these crowds can even outsmart experts. To gather the wisdom of the crowds, this project utilizes a prediction market. To successfully gather the wisdom of the crowds, a predictionmarket has to overcome serious challenges, such as gathering a large and active user base, and deciding on a fair initialmarket value. The main goal of the project is to create a prediction market that can overcome these challenges and successfully gather the wisdom of the crowds. Research has been done in the field of prediction markets. This process started with researching the theory behind prediction markets, the wisdom of the crowds. After that evaluating existing prediction markets and reviewing literature related to those markets was useful. Before and during the research phase, clear goals were set for the project, together with a clear set of requirements. These goals can be divided into: leveraging the wisdomof the crowd, solving problems associated with predictionmarkets and developing a product that is easily maintainable. The final product reaches the goals of the project and meets the requirements. The prediction market correctly aggregates the estimations of users on the market, and provides probabilities on real-world events. These probabilities are contained in the values on the market. The prediction markets solves the problems encountered on other prediction markets. The project makes use of gamification, an automated marketmaker and a reward system to correctly initialise market values. The system was thoroughly tested and developed with maintainability in mind.

http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:bc27d29a-fe51-4dc8-a1de-d116e283da8e

Student theses

bachelor thesis

© 2020 Jeroen van Steijn, Marc Droogh, Erwin Dam