Emergent Behaviour of Trajectory Based Operations Under Very High En-route Traffic Demand

Emergent Behaviour of Trajectory Based Operations Under Very High En-route Traffic Demand

Blom, H.A.P. (TU Delft Air Transport & Operations; Royal Netherlands Aerospace Centre NLR)
Bakker, GJ (Royal Netherlands Aerospace Centre NLR)

2017

Effective collaboration between planning controller, tactical controller and pilots in handling various uncertainties and hazards is the result of decades of evolutionary development. The forthcoming paradigm shift to Trajectory Based Operations (TBO) requires a similarly effective collaboration between the TBO layer and a tactical layer. Through agent-based modelling and simulation the authors have recently shown that in a pure airborne self-separation environment these two layers together can yield remarkably positive emergent behaviour in managing uncertainties and hazards, as a result of which very high en-route traffic demands can safely be accommodated. The current paper addresses the question if similarly good emergent behaviour is feasible with a ground based TBO design. The key findings are twofold. A negative finding is that ground-based TBO is not providing the remarkably positive emergent behaviours of pure airborne TBO. Though a positive finding is that ground-based TBO has the potential to safely accommodate high en route traffic demands.

Agent-based Modelling
Air Traffic Management
Monte Carlo
Hazards
Rare event simulation
safety risk assessment
Trajectory Based Operations
Uncertainty
4D trajectories

http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:d45aa519-3078-4250-8240-d4384d041e3b

12th Seminar Papers: 12th USA/Europe Air Traffic Management Research and Development Seminar

12th USA/Europe Air Traffic Management Research and Development Seminar, 2017-06-26 → 2017-06-30, Seattle, United States

Institutional Repository

conference paper

© 2017 H.A.P. Blom, GJ Bakker