A quantitative analysis of user participation in demand response in a future electricity network

A quantitative analysis of user participation in demand response in a future electricity network: An agent-based exploratory modelling study of price- and incentive-based interventions

ten Boske, Lisette (TU Delft Technology, Policy and Management)

Warnier, Martijn (mentor)
de Vries, G. (mentor)
Broersen, Sjors (graduation committee)

Delft University of Technology

Engineering and Policy Analysis

2021-03-26

In the future, the energy supply will primarily consist of energy from renewables, which makes energy producers and grid operators fear that grid security and reliability could be threatened. On top of a more fluctuating supply, energy demand is also expected to increase in the coming years, especially if heating will be electrical when gas is phased out. Demand-side management, and more specifically demand response, could be a way to make demand match supply better and limit the foreseen energy shortages. A smart grid and smart metering technology can be implemented to overcome the hurdles of grid integration of renewables. Consequently, the implementation of a smart grid could potentially steer consumer electricity usage and allow for automated demand shifting. This thesis analyzes consumer participation in demand response in an electricity grid with a high share of renewables. The effect of multiple price- and incentive-based interventions are tested for different consumer populations and supply scenarios. The aim is to improve the understanding of the effect of consumer heterogeneity on the participation in demand response. An agent-based model was constructed that represents the energy system as a copper plate model and incorporates the rule-based behavior of different consumer types. This model was used to answer the main research question: How can a simulation model be used to analyze the influence of consumer heterogeneity on the success of demand response enhancing policies in future electricity networks? The consumer types that were included are the green, the cost-conscious, the convenience-oriented and the indifferent energy consumer. Subsequently, five personal values were identified as important moderators for consumer participation, namely the values of price, environment, comfort, safety and social norm. Different interventions and combinations of interventions were compared based on the three model KPIs energy shortage, total electricity cost and required storage. The comparison of the interventions and intervention combinations showed that the differences in energy shortage between the policies were limited and were mainly determined by supply. For a constant supply, the results revealed that the simultaneous implementation of all policies was most effective to reduce shortages, followed by the policy combinations that included the cost comparison with a reduction. Naturally, these combinations also resulted in lower electricity costs for the consumers. The cost comparison and reduction policy and default shifting could increase consumer participation most when used as a separate intervention. Some main conclusions can be drawn from the analysis of the interventions. First of all, supply was the most important influence on energy shortages. Depending on the shortage period characteristics, shortages could not always be solved completely by demand response, but a higher amount of demand shifters can improve the situation significantly. However, not all consumer types could be motivated to switch to a shifting contract, which means that the consumer population is an important influence on the effectiveness of policies. From this thesis it can be concluded that a simulation study is a successful way to create an inclusive model of the technical, economic and behavioral system components. The model was able to provide a system-level overview of the system dynamics and improved the understanding of interactions between interventions and consumers. Therefore, this model can be used in future case studies to analyze the potential consumer participation and recommend suitable interventions to increase this.

Agent-Based Modeling
Deep uncertainty
demand response
Smart grid
Energy consumer behavior

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Student theses

master thesis

© 2021 Lisette ten Boske