Endogenous technological and population change under increasing water scarcity

Endogenous technological and population change under increasing water scarcity

Pande, S.
Ertsen, M.
Sivapalan, M.

Civil Engineering and Geosciences

Water Management

2014-08-27

While the proposed model is a rather simple model of a coupled human–water system, it is shown to be capable of replicating patterns of technological, population, production and consumption per capita changes. The model demonstrates that technological change may indeed ameliorate the effects of increasing water scarcity, but typically it does so only to a certain extent. In general we find that endogenous technology change under increasing water scarcity helps to delay the peak of population size before it inevitably starts to decline. We also analyze the case when water remains constant over time and find that co-evolutionary trajectories can never grow at a constant rate; rather the rate itself grows with time. Thus our model does not predict a co-evolutionary trajectory of a socio-hydrological system where technological innovation harmoniously provides for a growing population. It allows either for an explosion or an eventual dispersal of population. The latter occurs only under increasing water scarcity. As a result, we draw the conclusion that declining consumption per capita despite technological advancement and increase in aggregate production may serve as a useful predictor of upcoming decline in contemporary societies in water-scarce basins.

OA-Fund TU Delft

http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:fa939c22-a7e7-4461-b307-7ed108ef42bc

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3239-2014

European Geosciences Union

1027-5606

http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/18/3239/2014/

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 18 (8), 2014

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journal article

© 2014 The Author(s)
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