Print Email Facebook Twitter Exploring high-end scenarios for local sea level rise to develop flood protection strategies for a low-lying delta: The Netherlands as an example Title Exploring high-end scenarios for local sea level rise to develop flood protection strategies for a low-lying delta: The Netherlands as an example Author Katsman, C.A. Sterl, A. Beersma, J.J. Van den Brink, H.W. Church, J.A. Hazeleger, W. Kopp, R.E. Kroon, D. Kwadijk, J. Lammersen, R. Lowe, J. Oppenheimer, M. Plag, H.P. Ridley, J. Von Storch, H. Vaughan, D.G. Vellinga, P. Vermeersen, L.L.A. Van de Wal, R.S.W. Weisse, R. Faculty Aerospace Engineering Department Space Engineering Date 2011-02-24 Abstract Sea level rise, especially combined with possible changes in storm surges and increased river discharge resulting from climate change, poses a major threat in low-lying river deltas. In this study we focus on a specific example of such a delta: the Netherlands. To evaluate whether the country’s flood protection strategy is capable of coping with future climate conditions, an assessment of low-probability/highimpact scenarios is conducted, focusing mainly on sea level rise. We develop a plausible high-end scenario of 0.55 to 1.15 m global mean sea level rise, and 0.40 to 1.05 m rise on the coast of the Netherlands by 2100 (excluding land subsidence), and more than three times these local values by 2200. Together with projections for changes in storm surge height and peak river discharge, these scenarios depict a complex, enhanced flood risk for the Dutch delta. To reference this document use: http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:04317bef-5174-4037-832a-c68206af6e9c DOI https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0037-5 Publisher Springer ISSN 0165-0009 Source http://www.springerlink.com/content/u06g343u730481k8/ Source Climatic Change, 109 (3-4), 2011 Part of collection Institutional Repository Document type journal article Rights (c) 2011 The Author(s). This article is published with open access at Springerlink.com Files PDF katsman.pdf 965.13 KB Close viewer /islandora/object/uuid:04317bef-5174-4037-832a-c68206af6e9c/datastream/OBJ/view