Probabilistic sensitivity analysis of dune erosion calculations

Probabilistic sensitivity analysis of dune erosion calculations

Den Heijer, C.
Van de Graaff, J.
Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M.

Civil Engineering and Geosciences

Hydraulic Engineering

2008-05-06

Coastal dunes protect low lying coastal areas against the sea. Extreme waves and water levels during severe storms may cause breaching of the dunes. Consequently, serious damage due to flooding and direct wave attack could occur, resulting in loss of life and property. Proper coastal management implies that reinforcement measures will be taken if the actual safety level does not meet the agreed standard. It is therefore essential to be able to assess the safety of a dune coast against breaching. This study concerns a probabilistic sensitivity analysis of various variables that are included in the current Dutch safety assessment method. The aim is to get more insight in the influence of the stochastic characteristics of the various variables which are taken into account in the current method. Although for the actual assessment a semi-deterministic method is used, the design values of the variables are based on a probabilistic investigation. Using the underlying probabilistic investigation as a reference, the various distribution functions have been varied in order to get more insight in the influence of each of these stochastic characteristics on the rate of dune erosion.

dune erosion
extreme hydraulic conditions
storm surges
uncertainty
probabilistic approach

http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:1f84bf86-88dc-4000-ba54-4dd3c2265d0d

4th International Symposium on Flood Defence, Toronto, Canada, 6-8 May 2008

Institutional Repository

conference paper

(c) 2008 Den Heijer, C.; Van de Graaff, J.; Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M.