Factors influencing photovoltiac technology selection

Factors influencing photovoltiac technology selection

De Winter, A.A.L.

Van de Kaa, G. (mentor)
Kamp, L.M. (mentor)
Van Beers, C.P. (mentor)

Technology, Policy and Management

Technology, Strategy, and Entrepreneurship

Management of technology

2011-11-22

The unlimited availability of sunlight and the ability of photovoltaic (PV) cells to directly convert this radiation into electricity, makes PV a promising renewable energy technology. Five PV technologies are currently commercially available, however because the PV market is characterised by increasing returns to adoption, it is expected one dominant design will eventually emerge. This research is the first to study the factors that affect technology selection in the PV market. In the first part of this research existing frameworks on dominant designs, expert interviews and (non-)scientific literature are used to arrive at a list of 20 factors influencing technology selection in the PV market. Moreover, four additional factors were found that are in favour of the coexistence of multiple designs. In the second part, from the list of 20 factors, 13 were selected to be analysed via a questionnaire on their importance in the technology selection process of PV manufactures. Also the current status of PV technologies regarding these factors was analysed using a questionnaire. The questionnaires were structured using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and filled in by industry experts; data was analysed using the crisp and fuzzy (logarithmic fuzzy preference programming) AHP method. Results indicate that there are only minor differences between the two data analysis methods; in both methods the category of factors standard support strategy is most important (with a relative importance of ±47%), followed by characteristics of the standard (±29%), characteristics of the standard supporter (±18%) and other stakeholders (±6%). Similarly, pricing and technological superiority are the most influential factors (±20%), and mono-crystalline silicon has the best chance to become the future dominant design (a chance of 30%). The outcomes also show that existing frameworks do not fully describe selection in the PV market, since the factors policy and law needed to be introduced.

dominant designs
technology selection
photovoltaic technologies
analytic hierarchy process

http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:24342118-2b2a-4fb6-9b51-18c8fb87b42d

2011-11-05

Student theses

master thesis

(c) 2011 De Winter, A.A.L.