Bus ridership prediction

Bus ridership prediction: Development of a framework

de Lanoy, Jasper (TU Delft Civil Engineering and Geosciences; TU Delft Transport and Planning)

van Oort, Niels (mentor)
van Arem, Bart (graduation committee)
Annema, Jan Anne (graduation committee)
Stikvoort, Marc (mentor)

Delft University of Technology

Civil Engineering

2019-12-17

During tenders in public transport, the bus network is reconsidered and adjusted. An accurate prediction of the effect on ridership is required. Due to the tender environment, time and input data are limited. This research focuses on deriving a relation between level-of-service (LOS) and ridership, and implementing this in a model suitable for the tender environment. A before-after study is performed based on two different levels of detail: OD-based and line-based. An OD-based analysis shows two issues for translation to model parameters: a poor fit of the trend line and a large share of a-typical data. A line-based approach provides more promising results. The range of elasticities and growth factors found is large, which is insufficiently acknowledged by current literature. Context is one of the main explanations for the large range. A regression analysis indicates a significant relation between LOS and ridership and indicates possible significance of additional predictors for ridership change. A comparison model is developed, which enables the user to match its request with an entry in the data base, providing the ridership development and context. The model is able to provide the user with growth factors for full day and peak/off-peak interaction and indicates sensitivity of the user groups. Future expansion of the model is recommended.

Public Transport
Elasticity
Public transport modelling
Bus ridership
Ridership prediction
Level of service

http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:6c6bd6a3-4d1b-457e-a25a-fbdc32c068e3

2020-09-01

Student theses

master thesis

© 2019 Jasper de Lanoy