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Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Slinger, J.H. (author)
Coastal communities dependent upon groundwater resources for drinking water and irrigation are vulnerable to salinization of the groundwater reserve. The increasing uncertainty associated with changing climatic conditions, population and economic development, and technological advances in agriculture, water treatment, and water purification,...
conference paper 2011
document
Pruyt, E. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author)
Radicalization and deradicalization are deeply uncertain dynamic processes. Exploring and analyzing many plausible futures and assessing the robustness of policies to reinforce desirable evolutions seem more useful for such processes than trying to predict their precise development over time and optimize the associated policy response. This...
conference paper 2011
document
Pruyt, E. (author), Kwakkel, J. (author), Yucel, G. (author), Hamarat, C. (author)
This paper illustrates the use of Exploratory System Dynamics Modeling and Analysis – a multi-method combining System Dynamics and Exploratory Modeling and Analysis to explore and analyze uncertain dynamic issues and test deep policy robustness. This paper gives an overview of the current state of this multi-method by means of an illustration....
conference paper 2011
document
Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Slinger, J.H. (author)
Coastal communities dependent upon groundwater resources for drinking water and irrigation are vulnerable to salinization of the groundwater reserve. The increasing uncertainty associated with changing climatic conditions, population and economic development, and technological advances poses significant challenges for freshwater management. The...
conference paper 2012
document
Hamarat, C. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Pruyt, E. (author)
The recent flu pandemic in 2009 caused a panic about the possible consequences due to deep uncertainty about an unknown virus. Overstock of vaccines or unnecessary social measures to be taken were all due to uncertainty. However, what should be the necessary actions to take in such deeply uncertain situation where there is no or very little...
conference paper 2012
document
Pruyt, E. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author)
This paper presents a bright future for quantitative System Dynamics Modeling. This future relates to all major issues and grand challenges which all happen to be dynamically complex and deeply uncertain. Combining System Dynamics Modeling and Exploratory Modeling and Analysis allows one to generate, explore and deeply analyze tens of thousands...
conference paper 2012
document
Walker, W.E. (author), Haasnoot, M. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author)
There is increasing interest in long-term plans that can adapt to changing situations under conditions of deep uncertainty. We argue that a sustainable plan should not only achieve economic, environmental, and social objectives, but should be robust and able to be adapted over time to (unforeseen) future conditions. Large numbers of papers...
journal article 2013
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Tegeltija, Miroslava (author), Oehmen, Josef (author), Kozin, Igor (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author)
Uncertainty assessment and management, as well as the associated decision making are increasingly important in a variety of scientific fields. While uncertainty analysis has a long tradition, meeting sustainable development goals through long-term Life Cycle Engineering (LCE) decision making demands addressing Deep Uncertainty (DU). DU...
journal article 2018
document
McPhail, C. (author), Maier, H. R. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Giuliani, M (author), Castelletti, A (author), Westra, S. (author)
Robustness is being used increasingly for decision analysis in relation to deep uncertainty and many metrics have been proposed for its quantification. Recent studies have shown that the application of different robustness metrics can result in different rankings of decision alternatives, but there has been little discussion of what potential...
journal article 2018
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