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Cantarelli, C.C. (author), Flyvbjerg, B. (author), Molin, E.J.E. (author), Van Wee, B. (author)
Managing large-scale transportation infrastructure projects is difficult due to frequent misinformation about the costs which results in large cost overruns that often threaten the overall project viability. This paper investigates the explanations for cost overruns that are given in the literature. Overall, four categories of explanations can...
journal article 2010
document
Cantarelli, C.C. (author), Flyvbjerg, B. (author), Van Wee, G.P. (author), Molin, E.J.E. (author)
Een belangrijk fenomeen dat kostenoverschrijdingen kan verklaren is lock-in. We definiëren lockin als de buitenmatige verbondenheid van besluitmakers aan een inefficiënt besluit. Dit kan op twee manieren invloed hebben op de mate van kostenoverschrijdingen. Ten eerste methodologisch: kostenoverschrijdingen worden berekend op basis van de...
journal article 2012
document
Cantarelli, C.C. (author), Flyvbjerg, B. (author), Molin, E.J.E. (author), Van Wee, G.P. (author)
In Nederland komen kostenoverschrijdingen minder vaak voor en is de gemiddelde overschrijding lager dan in andere landen. Het grootste deel van de kostenoverschrijding komt voor in de fase voor de start van de bouw. De gemiddelde kostenoverschrijding is het kleinst voor spoorwegen gevolgd door wegen en kunstwerken. Spoorwegen en bruggen in...
journal article 2012
document
Flyvbjerg, Bent (author), Ansar, Atif (author), Budzier, Alexander (author), Buhl, Søren (author), Cantarelli, Chantal (author), Garbuio, Massimo (author), Glenting, Carsten (author), Holm, Mette Skamris (author), Lovallo, Dan (author), Molin, E.J.E. (author), Rønnest, Arne (author), Stewart, Allison (author), van Wee, G.P. (author)
The authors note with alarm that statistical noise caused by statistical incompetence is beginning to creep into research on cost overrun in public investment projects, contaminating research with work that does not meet basic standards of validity and reliability. The paper gives examples of such work and proposes three heuristics to root out...
journal article 2019
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Flyvbjerg, Bent (author), Ansar, Atif (author), Budzier, Alexander (author), Buhl, Søren (author), Cantarelli, Chantal (author), Garbuio, Massimo (author), Glenting, Carsten (author), Holm, Mette Skamris (author), Lovallo, Dan (author), Lunn, Daniel (author), Molin, E.J.E. (author), Rønnest, Arne (author), Stewart, Allison (author), van Wee, G.P. (author)
This paper gives an overview of good and bad practice for understanding and curbing cost overrun in large capital investment projects, with a critique of Love and Ahiaga-Dagbui (2018) as point of departure. Good practice entails: (a) Consistent definition and measurement of overrun; in contrast to mixing inconsistent baselines, price levels,...
journal article 2018
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