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Flyvbjerg, Bent (author), Ansar, Atif (author), Budzier, Alexander (author), Buhl, Søren (author), Cantarelli, Chantal (author), Garbuio, Massimo (author), Glenting, Carsten (author), Holm, Mette Skamris (author), Lovallo, Dan (author), Molin, E.J.E. (author), Rønnest, Arne (author), Stewart, Allison (author), van Wee, G.P. (author)
The authors note with alarm that statistical noise caused by statistical incompetence is beginning to creep into research on cost overrun in public investment projects, contaminating research with work that does not meet basic standards of validity and reliability. The paper gives examples of such work and proposes three heuristics to root out...
journal article 2019
document
Flyvbjerg, Bent (author), Ansar, Atif (author), Budzier, Alexander (author), Buhl, Søren (author), Cantarelli, Chantal (author), Garbuio, Massimo (author), Glenting, Carsten (author), Holm, Mette Skamris (author), Lovallo, Dan (author), Lunn, Daniel (author), Molin, E.J.E. (author), Rønnest, Arne (author), Stewart, Allison (author), van Wee, G.P. (author)
This paper gives an overview of good and bad practice for understanding and curbing cost overrun in large capital investment projects, with a critique of Love and Ahiaga-Dagbui (2018) as point of departure. Good practice entails: (a) Consistent definition and measurement of overrun; in contrast to mixing inconsistent baselines, price levels,...
journal article 2018