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Calibri 83ffff̙̙3f3fff3f3f33333f33333.7+TU Delft Repositoryg \,uuidrepository linktitleauthorcontributorpublication yearabstract
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departmentresearch group programmeprojectcoordinates)uuid:c8ce58b7-3ef8-429a-b61a-36cd3675077cDhttp://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:c8ce58b7-3ef8-429a-b61a-36cd3675077cProbabilistic downtime analysis for complex marine projects: A state-of-the-art model based on Markov theory to generate binary workability sequences for sequential operationsRip, J.pJonkman, S.N. (mentor); Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M. (mentor); Morales Napoles, O. (mentor); Hendriks, A.J.H. (mentor)A marine operations encounters downtime if its operational limit is exceeded during project execution. Accurate information about the expected downtime during a marine project is important information in the tender phase of such a project. The purpose of this thesis is therefore to give insight in the available methods for downtime analysis in different categories of marine operations and to examine the applicability of a new stochastic model to use in downtime simulations for complex projects. The proposed `modular Markov model' with linked Markov chains abstracts the actual metocean conditions by producing binary `workability sequences' for each operation (i.e. states representing whether a time step is `workable' or `not workable' given the operational limit of the operation). This model is able to generate workability sequences for individual operations and both coupled and uncoupled sequential operations, with operational limits determined by any number of metocean parameters. A small-scale validation on 6 operational limits and an application on a case-study project (offshore wind farm foundation installation) showed that workability sequences of individual operations are described realistically (i.e. including seasonality and persistency) and that the model yields promising results for it to be suitable to analyse the downtime risk of complex marine projects. It is however recommended that the validation is extended and that an uncertainty analysis is performed (to quantify the parametric and model uncertainty).downtime analysis; marine operation; marine project; operational limit; sequential operations; parallel operations; workability sequence; Markov chain; linked Markov chains; offshore wind farm; simulationen
master thesis
2017-12-11!Civil Engineering and GeosciencesHydraulic Engineering)uuid:636bdd6f-90be-4163-bf12-3f935585cf4eDhttp://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:636bdd6f-90be-4163-bf12-3f935585cf4eProbabilistic downtime analysis for complex marine projects: Development of a modular Markov model that generates binary workability sequences for sequential marine operations[Bruijn, Willem (TU Delft Civil Engineering and Geosciences; TU Delft Hydraulic Engineering)Jonkman, Bas (mentor); van Gelder, Pieter (mentor); Morales Napoles, Oswaldo (mentor); Hendriks, A.J.H. (mentor); Delft University of Technology (degree granting institution)A complex marine project consist of series of operations, with each operation subject to a predefined operational limit and duration, depending on the equipment being used. If actual weather conditions exceed the operational limit, then the operation cannot be executed and hence downtime occurs. It is up to contractors, such as Boskalis, to accurately estimate the expected downtime in order to determine the project costs. Recently, anew tool has been developed to make downtime assessments by using the Markov theory: the so-called `Downtime-Modular-Markov model' (DMM-model). It abstracts the actual metocean conditions by stochastically producing binary `workability sequences' for each operation, where a distinction has been made between workable and non-workable states given an operational limit. The Markov statistics of the model are based on the characteristics of the observed metocean conditions. Complex marine project simulations are realizable based on these statistics. The purpose of this thesis is to <?develop the DMM-model for which a software-testing process is applied. In the verification phase the concept and the code of the model are checked on correctness, consistency and completeness. Subsequently, the validation phase addresses to the quality of the model. Three different metocean datasets are used to test the model and its individual modules whether they perform sufficiently accurate. The most important findings of both phases are tackled in the improvement \& extension phase. Adjustments made during this last phase bring the DMM-model to a new state-of-the-art. It is recommended for further study to conduct an uncertainty analysis (quantify the model and parametric uncertainty).Complex marine project; operation; operational limit; downtime; Markov theory; Downtime-Modular-Markov model; workability sequences; simulation; software-testing; verification; validation; improvement; extension
2018-10-20
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