Stress-testing banks under deep uncertainty

Years of turmoil in the banking sector have revealed the need to assess bank performance under deep uncertainty and identify vulnerabilities to different types of risks. Banks are not the safe houses of old. Today, banks are highly uncertain dynamically complex systems that are permanently at risk due to internal and external stresses and...

A system dynamics mode-based exploratory analysis of salt water intrusion in coastal aquifers

Coastal communities dependent upon groundwater resources for drinking water and irrigation are vulnerable to salinization of the groundwater reserve. The increasing uncertainty associated with changing climatic conditions, population and economic development, and technological advances poses significant challenges for freshwater management. The...

Energy Transitions towards Sustainability I: A Staged Exploration of Complexity and Deep Uncertainty

This paper illustrates the use of Exploratory System Dynamics Modeling and Analysis – a multi-method combining System Dynamics and Exploratory Modeling and Analysis to explore and analyze uncertain dynamic issues and test deep policy robustness. This paper gives an overview of the current state of this multi-method by means of an illustration....

Strategies to combat salt water intrusion in coastal aquifers: A model-based exploratory analysis

Coastal communities dependent upon groundwater resources for drinking water and irrigation are vulnerable to salinization of the groundwater reserve. The increasing uncertainty associated with changing climatic conditions, population and economic development, and technological advances in agriculture, water treatment, and water purification,...