Incorporating Observations to Update the Piping Reliability Estimate of the Francis Levee

Piping failure of levees is one of the main contributors to flood risk. Piping occurs when the head difference over a levee results in uplift of the inland blanket, followed by backward erosion in the aquifer due to high local flow velocities. Whether piping occurs, highly depends on local geo-hydrological circumstances which are uncertain due...

Re-assessing reliability based on survived loads

The reliability of flood defenses is often dictated by large uncertainties in the hydraulic loading and the structural resistance. Additional information decreases uncertainty, however, acquiring it is often costly. One source of information, even though in many cases readily available, is hardly used – survived loads. This article shows how...

Updating piping probabilities with survived historical loads

Piping, also called under-seepage, is an internal erosion mechanism, which can cause the failure of dikes or other flood defence structures. The uncertainty in the resistance of a flood defence against piping is usually large, causing high probabilities of failure for this mechanism. A considerable part of this uncertainty is of epistemic nature...