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Auping, W.L. (author)
The copper case is often used as an example in resource depletion studies. Despite these studies, several profound uncertainties remain in the system. One of these uncertainties is the distribution of copper grades in the lithosphere. The Skinner thesis promotes the idea that copper grades may be distributed with a bimodal distribution instead...
conference paper 2014
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Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Haasnoot, M. (author)
Sustainable water management in a changing environment full of uncertainty is a profound challenge. To deal with uncertainties, dynamic adaptive policies can be used. Such policies can change over time in response to how the future unfolds, to what we learn about the system, to changes in environment, and to changes in societal preferences. This...
conference paper 2012
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Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Timmermans, J.S. (author)
In the Nature article ‘A safe operating space for humanity’, Rockström et al. (2009) introduce the concept of a safe operating space for humanity. A safe operating space is the space for human activities that will not push the planet out of the ‘Holocene state’ that has seen human civilizations arise, develop, and thrive. Rockström et al. have...
conference paper 2012
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Zerjav, V. (author), Hartmann, T. (author), Boes, J. (author)
Although a substantial amount of literature advocates the integrated collaborative design processes for construction projects, very little explicit knowledge exists about the impact of the integrated processes on project uncertainty. In contrast with construction site processes, which can in most cases be organized as a sequence of tasks...
conference paper 2011
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Marques, S.H. (author), Beer, M. (author), Gomes, A.T. (author), Henriques, A.A. (author)
The treatment of imprecision attracted continuous interest since the origin of probability as the science of uncertainty. As a matter of fact, probability has been developed to deal with uncertainty and the first argument supporting precise rather than imprecise probability counts on the nature of ordinary measurements. Starting from only a few...
conference paper 2015
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Venmans, A. (author), Schokker, J. (author), Dambrink, R. (author), Maljers, D. (author), Heerema, J.J. (author)
This paper presents method and first results of a study to quantify and communicate geotechnical risk for highway construction on soft soil and large building pits associated with infrastructural works in the Netherlands. A set of easy-to-read maps will inform the end users, geotechnical consultants at the Dutch Ministry of Infrastructure and...
conference paper 2015
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Eker, S. (author), Van Daalen, C. (author)
Bio-methane is a renewable gas option that can be injected to the natural gas grids to increase the sustainability of the energy system and to deal with natural gas supply problems. However, being based on several factors such as resource availability, competition between bio-methane and electricity sectors for biogas and biomass supply, demand,...
conference paper 2014
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Zhang, L. (author), Yan, W.M. (author)
Soil slopes are generally unsaturated in which the soil-water characteristic curve (SWCC) plays an important role in its hydro-mechanical response. The commonly used Mohr-Coulomb failure criterion in saturated soil mechanics could be extended to take SWCC into account which is then able to determine the shear strength of unsaturated soil. Like...
conference paper 2015
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Den Heijer, C. (author), Reniers, A.J.H.M. (author), Van de Graaff, J. (author), Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M. (author)
Coastal dunes protect low lying coastal areas against the sea. Extreme waves and water levels during severe storms may cause breaching of the dunes. Consequently, serious damage due to flooding and direct wave attack could occur, resulting in loss of life and property. Proper coastal management implies that reinforcement measures will be taken...
conference paper 2008
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Zhang, L. (author), Li, X. (author), Li, D. (author), Zhou, C. (author)
Important engineered slopes are often heavily instrumented and their performance routinely monitored through these instruments. The evaluation of the safety of the slopes based on the monitored information is however a challenge. A systematic method is presented in this paper for evaluating the slope safety by combining multi-source monitoring...
conference paper 2015
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Ströhle, P. (author), Gerding, E.H. (author), De Weerdt, M.M. (author), Stein, S. (author), Robu, V. (author)
We design new algorithms for the problem of allocating uncertain, flexible, and multi-unit demand online given uncertain supply, in order to maximise social welfare. The algorithms can be seen as extensions of the expectation and consensus algorithms from the domain of online scheduling. The problem is especially relevant to the future smart...
conference paper 2014
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Ligtvoet, A. (author)
Future price developments and availability of energy resources are uncertain. Therefore, developers of energy infrastructures will have to consider different scenarios in their planning. Moreover, the implementation of large infrastructures requires the cooperation of several actors, which adds to the uncertainty. In this paper we describe the...
conference paper 2010
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Eker, S. (author), Slinger, J.H. (author), Yucel, G. (author)
Automated sensitivity analysis approaches in system dynamics focus primarily on model parameters. Although table functions are often subjectively approximated, they do not form the focus of most sensitivity analyses. Recently, a promising approach that allows automation of sensitivity analysis on functions was proposed by Hearne (2010), but the...
conference paper
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Le Maitre, O.P. (author), Soize, C. (author)
We present a probabilistic model of uncertainties for the two-phase flow through a porous medium. The uncertainty in the model comes from an incomplete knowledge of the saturation-dependent effective mobilities of the phases, which are consequently considered as random processes. The probability laws of these processes are derived following the...
conference paper 2006
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Gerritsma, M.I. (author), Vos, P. (author), Van der Steen, J.B. (author)
conference paper 2008
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Pruyt, E. (author), Segers, J. (author), Oruc, S. (author)
In this ever more complex, interconnected, and uncertain world, leadership is needed more than ever. But the literature and most leaders largely ignore dynamic complexity and deep uncertainty: only futures characterized by ever faster change, ever more (required) flexibility, and ever more scarcity (especially in terms of highly qualified human...
conference paper 2011
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Eker, S. (author), Van Daalen, C. (author)
Unconventional gas has raised debates all over the world following its considerable contribution to the natural gas production of some countries such as the US. The Netherlands, which is a prominent gas producer in the Western Europe, also considers unconventional resources as an alternative to conventional production, which is estimated to...
conference paper 2012
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Eker, S. (author), Djong, J. (author), Leston, D. (author)
Rabies is a viral fatal disease transmitted to humans mainly from dogs. Human deaths due to rabies have been increasing in recent years, especially in Africa and Asia where socioeconomic factors play an important role in the revival of the epidemic. In the current situation, it is unknown how the epidemic will evolve and which policies can...
conference paper 2014
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Yoshida, I. (author), Shuku, T. (author)
We sometimes encounter a case in which very small change of computation or experiment condition causes the significant difference in response when strong nonlinearity is involved. Slope failure simulation due to gravity by MPS method is performed to examine feature of uncertainty. The simulation results show that the output uncertainty is...
conference paper 2015
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Kroon, J. (author), de Schipper, M.A. (author), den Heijer, C. (author), Aarninkhof, S.G.J. (author), van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M. (author)
In the present time of sea-level rise and climate change a global shift has occurred toward sandy coastal protection measures and Building with Nature. These type of protection measures impose extra uncertainty on the instantaneous state of the coastal system over time for which present deterministic forecasting techniques are not capable of...
conference paper 2017
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