- document
-
Pruyt, E. (author), Cunningham, S. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author), De Bruijn, J.A. (author)Human-computer and human-system interaction has already received extensive attention from HCI research communities, yet there are a number of issues that has not been addressed so far. In this paper we propose a novel vision on future human-system interaction that is governed by the principle of affordances and facilitated by cyber physical...conference paper 2014
- document
-
Pruyt, E. (author)Although SD modeling is sometimes called theory-rich data-poor modeling, it does not mean SD modeling should per definition be data-poor. SD software packages allow one to get data from, and write simulation runs to, databases. Moreover, data is also sometimes used in SD to calibrate parameters or bootstrap parameter ranges. But more could and...conference paper 2014
- document
-
Auping, W.L. (author), De Jong, S. (author), Pruyt, E. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author)The US’ shale gas revolution, a spectacular increase in natural gas extraction from previously unconventional sources, has led to considerable lower gas prices in North America. This study focusses on consequences of the shale gas revolution on state stability of traditional oil and gas exporting countries in the vicinity of the EU. For this...conference paper 2014
- document
-
Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Auping, W.L. (author), Pruyt, E. (author)In many public policy issues diverging understandings of the system can be encountered. These diverging understandings can reside in the mental models of the different actors involved, or even be codified into structurally different models of the system. For an analyst it can be of great use to get insight into how and under what conditions the...conference paper 2014
- document
-
Moorlag, R. (author), Auping, W.L. (author), Pruyt, E. (author)Now that conventional gas resources are rapidly declining in many industrialised regions, national governments are considering the exploration and production of unconventional resources, with shale gas in particular. Large-scale development of these resources could significantly lower import dependency of the gas supply of many countries. The...conference paper 2014
- document
- Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Auping, W.L. (author), Pruyt, E. (author) conference paper 2014
- document
-
Sharifi, M.A. (author), George, I. (author), Pruyt, E. (author)This paper addresses the pervasive problem of sexual harassment and domestic violence against women and children. Following a brief introduction to the scope and consequences of sexual harassment in different regions, this article focuses on the current situation in Egypt. To gain insight on the effects of the different policies proposed in the...conference paper 2013
- document
-
Pruyt, E. (author), Tsaples, G. (author), Kovari, A. (author), Vasilopoulos, C. (author)This paper deals with implementing land value taxation in a city. The System Dynamics method is used to gain insights regarding the consequences such a policy would have on the city’s growth. The hypothesis that when all taxes except for the land-value tax are suddenly eliminated the construction of new houses and new businesses will be...conference paper 2013
- document
-
Pruyt, E. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Hamarat, C. (author)Many grand challenges are both dynamically complex and deeply uncertain. Combining System Dynamics with Exploratory Modeling and Analysis allows one to generate, explore, identify and analyze all sorts of plausible scenarios related to such issues, and design and test adaptive policies over many scenarios. This paper explains and illustrates...conference paper 2013
- document
-
Loonen, E. (author), Pruyt, E. (author), Hamarat, C. (author)The European Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) in combination with other renewable electricity (RES-E) support schemes such as (premium) feed-in tariffs or tradable green certificates do not guarantee a carbon neutral power sector in 2050. This paper shows that many plausible futures of high carbon emissions exist when no substantial efficiency...conference paper 2013
- document
-
Hamarat, C. (author), Pruyt, E. (author), Loonen, E.T. (author)Adaptivity is essential for dynamically complex and uncertain systems. Adaptive policymaking is an approach to design policies that can be adapted over time to how the future unfolds. It is crucial for adaptive policymaking to specify under what conditions and how to adapt the policy. The performance of adaptive policy is critically depended on...conference paper 2013
- document
-
Islam, T. (author), Vasilopoulos, C. (author), Pruyt, E. (author)Years of turmoil in the banking sector have revealed the need to assess bank performance under deep uncertainty and identify vulnerabilities to different types of risks. Banks are not the safe houses of old. Today, banks are highly uncertain dynamically complex systems that are permanently at risk due to internal and external stresses and...conference paper 2013
- document
-
Howell, R. (author), Wesselink, O. (author), Pruyt, E. (author)Uganda and Botswana present two interesting and contrasting cases in the AIDS epidemic. System dynamics models of the AIDS epidemic in Botswana and Uganda were created to examine the future development of the virus in both countries and evaluate existing and future policy measures. The effect of existing and new policies such as abstinence only,...conference paper 2013
- document
-
Auping, W. (author), Pruyt, E. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author)High copper prices, the prospect of a transition to a more sustainable energy mix and increasing copper demands from emerging economies have not led to an in-creased attention to the base metal copper in mineral scarcity discussions. The copper system is well documented, but especially regarding the demand of copper many uncertainties exist. In...conference paper 2012
- document
-
Pruyt, E. (author)This follow-up paper presents cases and multiple choice questions for teaching and testing System Dynamics modeling. These cases and multiple choice questions were developed and used between January 2012 and April 2012 a large System Dynamics course (250+ 2nd year BSc and 40+ MSc students per year) at Delft University of Technology in the...conference paper 2012
- document
-
Mohammed, I.S. (author), Pruyt, E. (author)The built environment accounts for the largest proportion (approximately 40%) of energy consumption in most countries and consumption levels are still rising. This significant proportion makes it an essential sector to address in the sustainable transitions agenda. In the Netherlands, it is generally accepted that the energy transition of the...conference paper 2012
- document
-
Keijser, B.M.J. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Pruyt, E. (author)Formal Model Analysis (FMA) covers a group of methods and techniques to study structurebehaviour relations in best-estimate models. That is, FMA aims to identify the structural causes for the particular dynamics of a single best-estimate model. Under deep uncertainty, the notion of a best-estimate model is however troublesome. Then Exploratory...conference paper 2012
- document
-
Hamarat, C. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Pruyt, E. (author)The recent flu pandemic in 2009 caused a panic about the possible consequences due to deep uncertainty about an unknown virus. Overstock of vaccines or unnecessary social measures to be taken were all due to uncertainty. However, what should be the necessary actions to take in such deeply uncertain situation where there is no or very little...conference paper 2012
- document
-
Pruyt, E. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author)Integrated risk-capability analysis methodologies for dealing with increasing degrees of complexity and deep uncertainty are urgently needed in an ever more complex and uncertain world. Although scenario approaches, risk assessment methods, and capability analysis methods are used, few organizations and nations use truly integrated risk...conference paper 2012
- document
-
Logtens, T. (author), Pruyt, E. (author), Gijsbers, G.W. (author)Mismanagement of societal aging is an important threat to health care systems, social security systems, and the economy of many nations. a System Dynamics simulation model related to societal aging in the Netherlands and its implications for the Dutch welfare system is used here as a scenario generator for Exploratory System Dynamics Modeling...conference paper 2012