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Nikolic, I. (author), Warnier, Martijn (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Chappin, E.J.L. (author), Lukszo, Z. (author), Brazier, F.M. (author), Verbraeck, A. (author), Cvetkovic, M. (author), Palensky, P. (author)
report 2019
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Nikolic, I. (author), Lukszo, Z. (author), Chappin, E.J.L. (author), Warnier, Martijn (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Bots, P.W.G. (author), Brazier, F.M. (author)
report 2019
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Jaxa-Rozen, M. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Bloemendal, J.M. (author)
The modelling of social-ecological systems can provide useful insights into the interaction of social and environmental processes. However, quantitative social-ecological models should acknowledge the complexity and uncertainty of both underlying subsystems. For example, the agent-based models which are increasingly popular for groundwater...
journal article 2019
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Raso, L. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Timmermans, J.S. (author)
Climate change raises serious concerns for policymakers that want to ensure the success of long-term policies. To guarantee satisfactory decisions in the face of deep uncertainties, adaptive policy pathways might be used. Adaptive policy pathways are designed to take actions according to how the future will actually unfold. In adaptive...
journal article 2019
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Raso, L. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Timmermans, J.S. (author), Panthou, Geremy (author)
Adaptive policies have emerged as a valuable strategy for dealing with uncertainties by recognising the capacity of systems to adapt over time to new circumstances and surprises. The efficacy of adaptive policies hinges on detecting on-going change and ensuring that actions are indeed taken if and when necessary. This is operationalised by...
journal article 2019
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Jafino, B.A. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Haasnoot, M. (author)
Integrated assessment models often treat land-use change as an external driving force. In reality, land-use is influenced by environmental conditions. This paper explores the merits of endogenising land-use change, i.e. making land-use change an internal dynamic process in models used for supporting climate adaptation planning. For this purpose,...
journal article 2019
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van Bruggen, Anne (author), Nikolic, I. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author)
Coherent responses to important problems such as climate change require involving a multitude of stakeholders in a transformative process leading to development of policy pathways. The process of coming to an agreement on policy pathways requires critical reflection on underlying system conceptualizations and commitment to building capacity...
journal article 2019
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Ciullo, A. (author), de Bruijn, Karin M. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Klijn, F. (author)
Most alluvial plains in the world are protected by flood defences, for example, embankments, whose primary aim is to reduce the probability of flooding of the protected areas. At the same time, however, the presence of embankments at one area influences hydraulic conditions of downstream areas located on the same river. These hydraulic...
journal article 2019
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Rostampour, Vahab (author), Jaxa-Rozen, M. (author), Bloemendal, J.M. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Keviczky, T. (author)
Aquifer Thermal Energy Storage (ATES) is a building technology used to seasonally store thermal energy in the subsurface, which can reduce the energy use of larger buildings by more than half. The spatial layout of ATES systems is a key aspect for the technology, as thermal interactions between neighboring systems can degrade system performance....
journal article 2019
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van Berchum, E.C. (author), Mobley, William (author), Jonkman, S.N. (author), Timmermans, Jos (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Brody, Samuel D. (author)
Large, complex coastal regions often require a combination of interventions to lower the risk of flooding to an acceptable level. In practice, a limited number of strategies are considered and interdependencies between interventions are often simplified. This paper presents the Multiple Lines of Defence Optimization System (MODOS)ÔÇÉmodel. This...
journal article 2018
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Jaxa-Rozen, M. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author)
Complex environmental models typically require global sensitivity analysis (GSA) to account for non-linearities and parametric interactions. However, variance-based GSA is highly computationally expensive. While different screening methods can estimate GSA results, these techniques typically impose restrictions on sampling methods and input...
journal article 2018
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Eker, S. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author)
Many-Objective Robust Decision Making (MORDM) is a prominent model-based approach for dealing with deep uncertainty. MORDM has four phases: a systems analytical problem formulation, a search phase to generate candidate solutions, a trade-off analysis where different strategies are compared across many objectives, and a scenario discovery...
journal article 2018
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Jaxa-Rozen, M. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author)
Methods for testing and analyzing agent-based models have drawn increasing attention in the literature, in the context of efforts to establish standard frameworks for the development and documentation of models. This process can benefit from the use of established software environments for data analysis and visualization. For instance, the...
journal article 2018
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McPhail, C. (author), Maier, H. R. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Giuliani, M (author), Castelletti, A (author), Westra, S. (author)
Robustness is being used increasingly for decision analysis in relation to deep uncertainty and many metrics have been proposed for its quantification. Recent studies have shown that the application of different robustness metrics can result in different rankings of decision alternatives, but there has been little discussion of what potential...
journal article 2018
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Walker, W.E. (author), Marchau, Vincent (author), Bloemen, Pieter (author), Lawrence, Judy (author), Lempert, Robert (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author)
Glynn et al. (2017, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016EF000487) note the importance of engaging stakeholders in the process of public policymaking and analysis. In particular, they highlight the central role biases, beliefs, heuristics, and values play in such engagement. However, the framework they propose neglects uncertainty, which significantly...
journal article 2018
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Filatova, O.G. (author), Yang, Y. (author), Dewald, J.P.A. (author), Tian, Runfeng (author), Maceira-Elvira, Pablo (author), Takeda, Yusuke (author), Kwakkel, Gert (author), Yamashita, Okito (author), van der Helm, F.C.T. (author)
In hemiparetic stroke, functional recovery of paretic limb may occur with the reorganization of neural networks in the brain. Neuroimaging techniques, such as magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), have a high spatial resolution which can be used to reveal anatomical changes in the brain following a stroke. However, low temporal resolution of MRI...
journal article 2018
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Tegeltija, Miroslava (author), Oehmen, Josef (author), Kozin, Igor (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author)
Uncertainty assessment and management, as well as the associated decision making are increasingly important in a variety of scientific fields. While uncertainty analysis has a long tradition, meeting sustainable development goals through long-term Life Cycle Engineering (LCE) decision making demands addressing Deep Uncertainty (DU). DU...
journal article 2018
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Filatova, O.G. (author), van Vliet, L.J. (author), Schouten, A.C. (author), Kwakkel, Gert (author), van der Helm, F.C.T. (author), Vos, F.M. (author)
Better insight into white matter (WM) alterations after stroke onset could help to understand the underlying recovery mechanisms and improve future interventions. MR diffusion imaging enables to assess such changes. Our goal was to investigate the relation of WM diffusion characteristics derived from diffusion models of increasing complexity...
journal article 2018
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Jaxa-Rozen, M. (author), Rostampour Samarin, V. (author), Herrera, Eunice (author), Bloemendal, Martin (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Keviczky, T. (author)
Aquifer Thermal Energy Storage (ATES) is an innovative building technology that can be used to store thermal energy in natural subsurface formations [1, 4, 10]. In combination with a heat pump, ATES can reduce the energy demand of larger buildings by more than half, which has made the technology increasingly popular in northern Europe (see...
conference paper 2017
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Kwakkel, J.H. (author)
There is a growing interest in model-based decision support under deep uncertainty, reflected in a variety of approaches being put forward in the literature. A key idea shared among these is the use of models for exploratory rather than predictive purposes. Exploratory modeling aims at exploring the implications for decision making of the...
journal article 2017
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