Financial Stress Testing: A model based exploration under deep uncertainty

Years of turmoil in the banking sector have revealed the need to assess the performance of banks and explore the resilience of the banking system under adverse futures. Banks are not the safe houses everyone believed them to be, as the recent crisis of 2007 showed. Today, banks are highly uncertain dynamically complex systems that are...

Credit to SMEs? Robust Lending Decisions with Exploratory System Dynamics Modelling and Analysis

This project’s commissioner, the head of ING’s emerging markets credit trading desk developed a loan structure called Revenue Participation Loan to fit the needs of SMEs in emerging markets. He now wants to combine this new product with innovation in his approach to uncertainty. With these types of loans SMEs agree to pay a fixed percentage of...