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Eker, S. (author), Van Daalen, C. (author)
Unconventional gas has raised debates all over the world following its considerable contribution to the natural gas production of some countries such as the US. The Netherlands, which is a prominent gas producer in the Western Europe, also considers unconventional resources as an alternative to conventional production, which is estimated to...
conference paper 2012
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Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Haasnoot, M. (author)
Sustainable water management in a changing environment full of uncertainty is a profound challenge. To deal with uncertainties, dynamic adaptive policies can be used. Such policies can change over time in response to how the future unfolds, to what we learn about the system, to changes in environment, and to changes in societal preferences. This...
conference paper 2012
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Eker, S. (author), Van Daalen, C. (author)
The natural gas production in the Netherlands is estimated to decline significantly in the coming 25 years. This situation has led producers to consider alternatives such as unconventional gas resources which are successfully utilized in the US and debated all over the world. However, despite the substantial initial resource estimates,...
conference paper 2012
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Haasnoot, M. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Walker, W.E. (author)
Water management in river deltas is increasingly being challenged by pressures from population growth, sea level rise, increasing variability in river runoffs, and potential climate change. Adaptation to such changes is not only determined by what is known or anticipated at present, but also by what will be experienced and learned as the future...
conference paper 2012
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Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Timmermans, J.S. (author)
In the Nature article ‘A safe operating space for humanity’, Rockström et al. (2009) introduce the concept of a safe operating space for humanity. A safe operating space is the space for human activities that will not push the planet out of the ‘Holocene state’ that has seen human civilizations arise, develop, and thrive. Rockström et al. have...
conference paper 2012
document
Roggema, R.E. (author)
Current spatial planning and design practice regards urban and rural spatial systems as simple systems. The proposed design strategies are often one-dimensional, one-problem and one-solution oriented. As a consequence, they often decrease the flexibility of urban systems to cope with uncertainty and the occurrence of weather extremes. Spatial...
conference paper 2011
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Pruyt, E. (author), Segers, J. (author), Oruc, S. (author)
In this ever more complex, interconnected, and uncertain world, leadership is needed more than ever. But the literature and most leaders largely ignore dynamic complexity and deep uncertainty: only futures characterized by ever faster change, ever more (required) flexibility, and ever more scarcity (especially in terms of highly qualified human...
conference paper 2011
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Zerjav, V. (author), Hartmann, T. (author), Boes, J. (author)
Although a substantial amount of literature advocates the integrated collaborative design processes for construction projects, very little explicit knowledge exists about the impact of the integrated processes on project uncertainty. In contrast with construction site processes, which can in most cases be organized as a sequence of tasks...
conference paper 2011
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Taneja, P. (p.taneja@tudelft.nl) (author), Ligteringen, H. (h.ligteringen@tudelft.nl) (author), Walker, W.E. (w.e.walker@tudelft.nl) (author)
Recently, flexibility has received much attention from port researchers, designers, and managers. That is because the stability of the competitive environment of the past has been replaced by increasing uncertainty. The current economic crisis and the recent trends in ports and shipping sectors are causing port planners to rethink their approach...
conference paper 2010
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Ligtvoet, A. (author)
Future price developments and availability of energy resources are uncertain. Therefore, developers of energy infrastructures will have to consider different scenarios in their planning. Moreover, the implementation of large infrastructures requires the cooperation of several actors, which adds to the uncertainty. In this paper we describe the...
conference paper 2010
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Ten Veldhuis, J.A.E. (author), Clemens, F.H.L.R. (author), Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M. (author)
Traditional methods to evaluate flood risk mostly focus on storm events as the main cause of flooding. Fault tree analysis is a technique that is able to model all potential causes of flooding and to quantify both the overall probability of flooding and the contributions of all causes of flooding to the overall flood probability. This paper...
conference paper 2008
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Den Heijer, C. (author), Reniers, A.J.H.M. (author), Van de Graaff, J. (author), Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M. (author)
Coastal dunes protect low lying coastal areas against the sea. Extreme waves and water levels during severe storms may cause breaching of the dunes. Consequently, serious damage due to flooding and direct wave attack could occur, resulting in loss of life and property. Proper coastal management implies that reinforcement measures will be taken...
conference paper 2008
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Den Heijer, C. (author), Van de Graaff, J. (author), Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M. (author)
Coastal dunes protect low lying coastal areas against the sea. Extreme waves and water levels during severe storms may cause breaching of the dunes. Consequently, serious damage due to flooding and direct wave attack could occur, resulting in loss of life and property. Proper coastal management implies that reinforcement measures will be taken...
conference paper 2008
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Gerritsma, M.I. (author), Vos, P. (author), Van der Steen, J.B. (author)
conference paper 2008
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Le Maitre, O.P. (author), Soize, C. (author)
We present a probabilistic model of uncertainties for the two-phase flow through a porous medium. The uncertainty in the model comes from an incomplete knowledge of the saturation-dependent effective mobilities of the phases, which are consequently considered as random processes. The probability laws of these processes are derived following the...
conference paper 2006
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Eker, S. (author), Slinger, J.H. (author), Yucel, G. (author)
Automated sensitivity analysis approaches in system dynamics focus primarily on model parameters. Although table functions are often subjectively approximated, they do not form the focus of most sensitivity analyses. Recently, a promising approach that allows automation of sensitivity analysis on functions was proposed by Hearne (2010), but the...
conference paper
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