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Kolen, B. (author), Zethof, Marit (author), de Bruijn, Karin (author), Hazenoot, Evert (author)The central issue for authorities (as well as the public) is how and when to respond to forecasted extreme water levels on rivers, lakes and along the coast and large-scale flooding is an actual risk. The decision-making process is influenced by contradicting information, overloads and gaps in information, rumours, uncertainties in forecasts,...abstract 2017
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Enserink, B. (author), Bots, P.W.G. (author), van Daalen, C. (author), Hermans, L.M. (author), Kortmann, Rens (author), Koppenjan, Joop (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Ruijgh-van der Ploeg, M.P.M. (author), Slinger, J (author), Thissen, W.A.H. (author)Policy of Multi-Actor Systems is an introduction into the art of craft of problem exploration and problem structuring. It positions policy analysis as a scientific discipline focused on systems analysis in a multi-actor context to support better informed decision-making. The approach presented in this book is considered to be the cornerstone of...book 2022
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Eker, S. (author), Djong, J. (author), Leston, D. (author)Rabies is a viral fatal disease transmitted to humans mainly from dogs. Human deaths due to rabies have been increasing in recent years, especially in Africa and Asia where socioeconomic factors play an important role in the revival of the epidemic. In the current situation, it is unknown how the epidemic will evolve and which policies can...conference paper 2014
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Haasnoot, M. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Walker, W.E. (author)Water management in river deltas is increasingly being challenged by pressures from population growth, sea level rise, increasing variability in river runoffs, and potential climate change. Adaptation to such changes is not only determined by what is known or anticipated at present, but also by what will be experienced and learned as the future...conference paper 2012
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Den Heijer, C. (author), Reniers, A.J.H.M. (author), Van de Graaff, J. (author), Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M. (author)Coastal dunes protect low lying coastal areas against the sea. Extreme waves and water levels during severe storms may cause breaching of the dunes. Consequently, serious damage due to flooding and direct wave attack could occur, resulting in loss of life and property. Proper coastal management implies that reinforcement measures will be taken...conference paper 2008
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Pruyt, E. (author), Segers, J. (author), Oruc, S. (author)In this ever more complex, interconnected, and uncertain world, leadership is needed more than ever. But the literature and most leaders largely ignore dynamic complexity and deep uncertainty: only futures characterized by ever faster change, ever more (required) flexibility, and ever more scarcity (especially in terms of highly qualified human...conference paper 2011
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Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Haasnoot, M. (author)Sustainable water management in a changing environment full of uncertainty is a profound challenge. To deal with uncertainties, dynamic adaptive policies can be used. Such policies can change over time in response to how the future unfolds, to what we learn about the system, to changes in environment, and to changes in societal preferences. This...conference paper 2012
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Van Nooyen, R.R.P. (author), Hrachowitz, M. (author), Kolechkina, A.G. (author)Even without uncertainty about the model structure or parameters, the output of a hydrological model run still contains several sources of uncertainty. These are: measurement errors affecting the input, the transition from continuous time and space to discrete time and space, which causes loss of information about the input, discretization of...conference paper 2014
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Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Timmermans, J.S. (author)In the Nature article ‘A safe operating space for humanity’, Rockström et al. (2009) introduce the concept of a safe operating space for humanity. A safe operating space is the space for human activities that will not push the planet out of the ‘Holocene state’ that has seen human civilizations arise, develop, and thrive. Rockström et al. have...conference paper 2012
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Eker, S. (author), Van Daalen, C. (author)Bio-methane is a renewable gas option that can be injected to the natural gas grids to increase the sustainability of the energy system and to deal with natural gas supply problems. However, being based on several factors such as resource availability, competition between bio-methane and electricity sectors for biogas and biomass supply, demand,...conference paper 2014
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Eker, S. (author), Slinger, J.H. (author), Yucel, G. (author)Automated sensitivity analysis approaches in system dynamics focus primarily on model parameters. Although table functions are often subjectively approximated, they do not form the focus of most sensitivity analyses. Recently, a promising approach that allows automation of sensitivity analysis on functions was proposed by Hearne (2010), but the...conference paper
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Ten Veldhuis, J.A.E. (author), Clemens, F.H.L.R. (author), Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M. (author)Traditional methods to evaluate flood risk mostly focus on storm events as the main cause of flooding. Fault tree analysis is a technique that is able to model all potential causes of flooding and to quantify both the overall probability of flooding and the contributions of all causes of flooding to the overall flood probability. This paper...conference paper 2008
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- Herder, P.M. (author), Pulles, K. (author) conference paper 2013
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Auping, W.L. (author), De Jong, S. (author), Pruyt, E. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author)The US’ shale gas revolution, a spectacular increase in natural gas extraction from previously unconventional sources, has led to considerable lower gas prices in North America. This study focusses on consequences of the shale gas revolution on state stability of traditional oil and gas exporting countries in the vicinity of the EU. For this...conference paper 2014
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Ligtvoet, A. (author)Future price developments and availability of energy resources are uncertain. Therefore, developers of energy infrastructures will have to consider different scenarios in their planning. Moreover, the implementation of large infrastructures requires the cooperation of several actors, which adds to the uncertainty. In this paper we describe the...conference paper 2010
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Eker, S. (author), Van Daalen, C. (author)Import dependency and the extent of renewable gas production are two outcomes of interest concerning the future of gas supply in the Netherlands. Due to the complexity of internal mechanisms and uncertainties associated with the natural gas production, the production of renewable gases, and the demand for gas, the future of these two outcomes of...conference paper 2013
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Eker, S. (author), Van Daalen, C. (author)The natural gas production in the Netherlands is estimated to decline significantly in the coming 25 years. This situation has led producers to consider alternatives such as unconventional gas resources which are successfully utilized in the US and debated all over the world. However, despite the substantial initial resource estimates,...conference paper 2012
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Wang, L. (author), Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M. (author), Vrijling, J.K. (author), Ranasinghe, R.W.M.R.J.B. (author), Maskey, S. (author)To guarantee a safe flood defence in a changing environment, the adaptation to climate change needs to be considered in the design of river dikes. However, the large uncertainty in the projections of future climate leads to varied estimations of future flood probability. How to cope with the uncertainties in future flood probability under...conference paper 2013
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Eker, S. (author), Van Daalen, C. (author)Unconventional gas has raised debates all over the world following its considerable contribution to the natural gas production of some countries such as the US. The Netherlands, which is a prominent gas producer in the Western Europe, also considers unconventional resources as an alternative to conventional production, which is estimated to...conference paper 2012
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Den Heijer, C. (author), Van de Graaff, J. (author), Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M. (author)Coastal dunes protect low lying coastal areas against the sea. Extreme waves and water levels during severe storms may cause breaching of the dunes. Consequently, serious damage due to flooding and direct wave attack could occur, resulting in loss of life and property. Proper coastal management implies that reinforcement measures will be taken...conference paper 2008