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Marques, S.H. (author), Beer, M. (author), Gomes, A.T. (author), Henriques, A.A. (author)The treatment of imprecision attracted continuous interest since the origin of probability as the science of uncertainty. As a matter of fact, probability has been developed to deal with uncertainty and the first argument supporting precise rather than imprecise probability counts on the nature of ordinary measurements. Starting from only a few...conference paper 2015
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Eker, S. (author), Djong, J. (author), Leston, D. (author)Rabies is a viral fatal disease transmitted to humans mainly from dogs. Human deaths due to rabies have been increasing in recent years, especially in Africa and Asia where socioeconomic factors play an important role in the revival of the epidemic. In the current situation, it is unknown how the epidemic will evolve and which policies can...conference paper 2014
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Haasnoot, M. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Walker, W.E. (author)Water management in river deltas is increasingly being challenged by pressures from population growth, sea level rise, increasing variability in river runoffs, and potential climate change. Adaptation to such changes is not only determined by what is known or anticipated at present, but also by what will be experienced and learned as the future...conference paper 2012
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Den Heijer, C. (author), Reniers, A.J.H.M. (author), Van de Graaff, J. (author), Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M. (author)Coastal dunes protect low lying coastal areas against the sea. Extreme waves and water levels during severe storms may cause breaching of the dunes. Consequently, serious damage due to flooding and direct wave attack could occur, resulting in loss of life and property. Proper coastal management implies that reinforcement measures will be taken...conference paper 2008
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Pruyt, E. (author), Segers, J. (author), Oruc, S. (author)In this ever more complex, interconnected, and uncertain world, leadership is needed more than ever. But the literature and most leaders largely ignore dynamic complexity and deep uncertainty: only futures characterized by ever faster change, ever more (required) flexibility, and ever more scarcity (especially in terms of highly qualified human...conference paper 2011
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Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Haasnoot, M. (author)Sustainable water management in a changing environment full of uncertainty is a profound challenge. To deal with uncertainties, dynamic adaptive policies can be used. Such policies can change over time in response to how the future unfolds, to what we learn about the system, to changes in environment, and to changes in societal preferences. This...conference paper 2012
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Van Nooyen, R.R.P. (author), Hrachowitz, M. (author), Kolechkina, A.G. (author)Even without uncertainty about the model structure or parameters, the output of a hydrological model run still contains several sources of uncertainty. These are: measurement errors affecting the input, the transition from continuous time and space to discrete time and space, which causes loss of information about the input, discretization of...conference paper 2014
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Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Timmermans, J.S. (author)In the Nature article ‘A safe operating space for humanity’, Rockström et al. (2009) introduce the concept of a safe operating space for humanity. A safe operating space is the space for human activities that will not push the planet out of the ‘Holocene state’ that has seen human civilizations arise, develop, and thrive. Rockström et al. have...conference paper 2012
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Eker, S. (author), Van Daalen, C. (author)Bio-methane is a renewable gas option that can be injected to the natural gas grids to increase the sustainability of the energy system and to deal with natural gas supply problems. However, being based on several factors such as resource availability, competition between bio-methane and electricity sectors for biogas and biomass supply, demand,...conference paper 2014
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Eker, S. (author), Slinger, J.H. (author), Yucel, G. (author)Automated sensitivity analysis approaches in system dynamics focus primarily on model parameters. Although table functions are often subjectively approximated, they do not form the focus of most sensitivity analyses. Recently, a promising approach that allows automation of sensitivity analysis on functions was proposed by Hearne (2010), but the...conference paper
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Zhang, L. (author), Yan, W.M. (author)Soil slopes are generally unsaturated in which the soil-water characteristic curve (SWCC) plays an important role in its hydro-mechanical response. The commonly used Mohr-Coulomb failure criterion in saturated soil mechanics could be extended to take SWCC into account which is then able to determine the shear strength of unsaturated soil. Like...conference paper 2015
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Mergili, M. (author), Marchesini, I. (author), Rossi, M. (author), Alvioli, M. (author), Schneider-Muntau, B. (author), Cardinali, M. (author), Ardizzone, F. (author), Fiorucci, F. (author), Valigi, D. (author), Santangelo, M. (author), Bucci, F. (author), Guzzetti, F. (author)The GIS-based open source software r.slope.stability computes broad-scale spatial overviews of shallow and deep-seated slope stability through physically-based modelling. We focus on the landslide-prone 90 km2 Collazzone area, central Italy, exploiting a comprehensive set of lithological, geotechnical and landslide inventory data available for...conference paper 2015
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Zhang, L. (author), Li, X. (author), Li, D. (author), Zhou, C. (author)Important engineered slopes are often heavily instrumented and their performance routinely monitored through these instruments. The evaluation of the safety of the slopes based on the monitored information is however a challenge. A systematic method is presented in this paper for evaluating the slope safety by combining multi-source monitoring...conference paper 2015
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Ten Veldhuis, J.A.E. (author), Clemens, F.H.L.R. (author), Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M. (author)Traditional methods to evaluate flood risk mostly focus on storm events as the main cause of flooding. Fault tree analysis is a technique that is able to model all potential causes of flooding and to quantify both the overall probability of flooding and the contributions of all causes of flooding to the overall flood probability. This paper...conference paper 2008
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Shuku, T. (author), Nishimura, S-I. (author), Yoshida, I. (author)Strong nonlinear behavior such as slope failure involves large uncertainties. Even if we conduct model tests on slope failure under the same test conditions, we cannot reproduce the same results although the linear behavior can be reproduced with relative ease. This kind of uncertainties is well known as “aleatory uncertainty” and they should be...conference paper 2015
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- Herder, P.M. (author), Pulles, K. (author) conference paper 2013
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Auping, W.L. (author), De Jong, S. (author), Pruyt, E. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author)The US’ shale gas revolution, a spectacular increase in natural gas extraction from previously unconventional sources, has led to considerable lower gas prices in North America. This study focusses on consequences of the shale gas revolution on state stability of traditional oil and gas exporting countries in the vicinity of the EU. For this...conference paper 2014
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Yoshida, I. (author), Shuku, T. (author)We sometimes encounter a case in which very small change of computation or experiment condition causes the significant difference in response when strong nonlinearity is involved. Slope failure simulation due to gravity by MPS method is performed to examine feature of uncertainty. The simulation results show that the output uncertainty is...conference paper 2015
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Le Maitre, O.P. (author), Soize, C. (author)We present a probabilistic model of uncertainties for the two-phase flow through a porous medium. The uncertainty in the model comes from an incomplete knowledge of the saturation-dependent effective mobilities of the phases, which are consequently considered as random processes. The probability laws of these processes are derived following the...conference paper 2006
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Ligtvoet, A. (author)Future price developments and availability of energy resources are uncertain. Therefore, developers of energy infrastructures will have to consider different scenarios in their planning. Moreover, the implementation of large infrastructures requires the cooperation of several actors, which adds to the uncertainty. In this paper we describe the...conference paper 2010