Forecasting House Prices through Credit Conditions: A Bayesian Approach

As housing development and housing market policies involve many long-term decisions, improving house price predictions could benefit the functioning of the housing market. Therefore, in this paper, we investigate how house price predictions can be improved. In particular, the merits of Bayesian estimation techniques in enhancing house price...

Price Measurement Using Scanner Data: Time-Product Dummy Versus Time Dummy Hedonic Indexes

This paper compares two model-based multilateral price indexes: the time-product dummy (TPD) index and the time dummy hedonic (TDH) index, both estimated by expenditure-share weighted least squares regression. The TPD model can be viewed as the saturated version of the underlying TDH model, and we argue that the regression residuals are ...

Accounting for Spatial Variation of Land Prices in Hedonic Imputation House Price Indices: A Semi-Parametric Approach

Location is capitalized into the price of the land the structure of a property is built on, and land prices can be expected to vary significantly across space. We account for spatial variation of land prices in hedonic house price models using geospatial data and a semi-parametric method known as mixed geographically weighted regression. To...

Risks in homeownership: a perspective on The Netherlands

Purpose<br/>Risk in home ownership from mortgage providers’ perspectives has received tremendous attention than individual home owner’s perspectives in existing literature following the financial crisis in 2007/2008 within the euro zone. This paper explored the risks factors in homeowners from the individual household’s perspectives within the...

House prices and long-term equilibrium in the regulated market of the Netherlands

This paper establishes a simple affordability model that implicitly incorporates the major Dutch market features to elucidate long-run house prices under a regulatory environment. The results reveal a long-run relationship for house prices under strict regulations. The association among house prices, income, interest rates, and inflation is...

Amsterdam house price ripple effects in The Netherlands

Purpose: This paper aims to examine the existence of the ripple effect from Amsterdam to the housing markets of other regions in The Netherlands. It identifies which regional housing markets are influenced by house price movements in Amsterdam. Design/methodology/approach: The paper considers the ripple effect as a lead-lag effect and a long...

Beoordeling woningmarktmodellen aardbevingsgebied Groningen

Rapport opgesteld met subsidie van Dialoogtafel Groningen.

House Price Risk and Sub-District House Price Dynamics: The Case of Amsterdam

The recent Global Financial Crisis has lent even greater urgency to the need for households to understand the risks and dynamics of the residential property market better. This paper uses a rich dataset on individual residential property transactions between 1995 and 2014 in Amsterdam to study the risks and the inter-dependency of house prices...

The mismatch between conventional house price modeling and regulated markets: insights from The Netherlands

House price modeling has been frequently used to investigate the dynamics of housing markets, especially competitive markets; yet less attention has been given to markets that have experienced considerable interventions. The aim of this study is to demonstrate a mismatch between conventional house price models and the case of the Netherlands...

Interurban house price gradient: Effect of urban hierarchy distance on house prices

A framework for large scale use of scanner data in the Dutch CPI

Statistics Netherlands is planning to use scanner data on a large scale for the compilation of the CPI, covering supermarkets, department stores, do-it-yourself stores, etc. Ideally, to make the production process as efficient as possible, a limited number of fully or semi-automated methods would be used. The purpose of this paper is to propose...

Dutch mortgage arrears and the role of the global financial crisis

As in many countries, the Dutch housing market was severely hit by the recent financial crisis. Following the recession, the average house price in the Netherlands fell by almost 25% and the proportion of homeowners with mortgage payment arrears nearly doubled. In this paper, we study mortgage payment arrears in the Netherlands and investigate...

An appraisal-based generalized regression estimator of house price change

The house price index compiled by Statistics Netherlands relies on the Sale Price Appraisal Ratio (SPAR) method. The SPAR method combines selling prices with prior government assessments of properties. This paper outlines an alternative approach where the appraisals serve as auxiliary information in a generalized regression (GREG) framework. An...

Design of a Human Reliability Assessment model for structural engineering

It is generally accepted that humans are the “weakest link” in structural design and construction processes. Despite this, few models are available to quantify human error within engineering processes. This paper demonstrates the use of a quantitative Human Reliability Assessment model within structural engineering. The model consists of four...

The measurement of house prices: A review of the sale price appraisal ratio method

The sale price appraisal ratio (SPAR) method has been applied in a number of countries to construct house price indexes. This paper reviews the statistical and index number properties of the SPAR approach. Three types of SPAR indexes are distinguished: a weighted index, which aims at tracking the price change of the stock of owner-occupied...

A house price index based on the SPAR method

Within the European Union there has been a push to provide European governments and the European Central Bank with the statistics they need for monitoring the owneroccupied sector. This paper reports on the results of a project to develop a house price index for the Netherlands. From January 2008, Kadaster, the Dutch land registry office, and...