Searched for: author%3A%22Ale%2C+B.J.M.%22
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Ale, B.J.M. (author), Slater, David H. (author)
As today's engineering systems have become increasingly sophisticated, assessing the efficacy of their safety-critical systems has become much more challenging. The more classical methods of “failure” analysis by decomposition into components related by logic trees, such as fault and event trees, root cause analysis, and failure mode and...
journal article 2023
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Ale, B.J.M. (author), Slater, David H. (author), Hartford, Des N.D. (author)
Even in a pandemic there seem to be inherent conflicts of interest between the individual and societal consequences of remedial actions and strategies. Actions taken in the sole interests of patients, as required by the Hippocratic oath, can have broadly inconvenient economic implications for the State. (“Average” benefits for a population can...
journal article 2022
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Ale, B.J.M. (author), Hartford, Des N.D. (author), Slater, David H. (author)
Legacy risks from infrastructures and industrial installations often reveal themselves when a potential for failure has been discovered much later than at the stage of the design and construction of a structure. In which case, there might already be a problem with the legacy installation, or even a crisis, without having had an accident. When...
journal article 2021
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Ale, B.J.M. (author), Hartford, Des N.D. (author), Slater, David H. (author)
The assumption that risk, represented as an expected value of the loss could be implied to be a measure of safety, in a cost benefit analysis, is firmly entrenched in economic risk analysis. However, this does not mean that without a marker, the value of a loss, can be established with any necessary level of certainty to make such a cost...
journal article 2021
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Slater, David (author), Hill, Rees (author), Kumar, Maneesh (author), Ale, B.J.M. (author)
In analysing the performance of complex sociotechnical systems, of particular interest is the inevitable and inherent variability that these systems exhibit, but can normally tolerate, in successfully operating in the real world. Knowing how that variability propagates and impacts the total function mix then allows an understanding of emergent...
journal article 2021
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Ale, B.J.M. (author), Hartford, Des N.D. (author), Slater, David H. (author)
Since Nassim Taleb coined black swan as an event that occurred as a complete surprise for everybody, the metaphor of the black swan has been applied to a much wider variety of events. Black swan events now comprise events that are a surprise for some but not for others, events that have a low likelihood, events that were not believed to be...
journal article 2020
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Ale, B.J.M. (author), Hartford, D.N.D. (author), Slater, D.H. (author)
In the philosophy of SAFETY-I variability is seen as a threat, because it brings with it the possibility of an unwanted outcome. Variability of hardware is curtailed by, amongst other things, precise specifications. Variability of human behavior is curtailed by inter alia regulations and protocols. In the philosophy of SAFETY-II variability is...
conference paper 2019
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Ale, B.J.M. (author), Hartford, Des N.D. (author), Slater, David H. (author)
In making decisions, rationality is often equated to economic rationality. This means that in every decision, the benefits should outweigh the costs, when both are expressed in monetary terms. Balancing of cost and benefits through monetary Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA), which is used more and more widely in health and safety decision-making,...
journal article 2019
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Xiao, F. (author), Ligteringen, H. (author), Van Gulijk, C. (author), Ale, B.J.M. (author)
This paper describes a microscopic nautical traffic simulation model based on multi-agent system. The ship traffic is produced from the behavior of autonomous agents that represent ships. Especially, we look at the behaviors for collision avoidance in different encountering situations with different local environmental conditions. The behavior...
conference paper 2013
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Ale, B.J.M. (author), Van Gulijk, C. (author), Hanea, D.M. (author), Hudson, P. (author), Lin, P.H. (author), Sillem, S. (author), Steenhoek, M. (author), Ababei, D. (author)
An integrated model for risk in a real-time environment for the hydrocarbon industry based on the CATS model for commercial aviation safety has been further developed. The approach described in earlier papers required Bayesian Belief Nets (BBN) to be developed for each process unit separately. A much more efficient method for developing the...
conference paper 2013
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Moorkamp, M. (author), Kramer, E.H. (author), Van Gulijk, C. (author), Ale, B.J.M. (author)
In this paper we present a conceptualization of safety management that is based on the cybernetic concepts of “controllability” and “control capacity”. In particular, we explore what this conceptualization means for safety management of the Dutch Army’s UAV unit that was part of Task Force Uruzgan (TFU) in the years 2006–2007 and 2008–2009. In...
conference paper 2013
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Van Gulijk, C. (author), Hanea, D.H. (author), Almeida, K.Q. (author), Steenhoek, M. (author), Ale, B.J.M. (author), Ababei, D. (author)
This paper describes the blueprint of a model for calculating the left-hand side of the bow-tie for chemical plants is described. The model is based on Non-Parametric Bayesian Belief Nets so that uncertainties are automatically included. Also, the procedure for constructing the elements for the model is described. The aim is to calculate LoC...
conference paper 2013
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Lin, P.H. (author), Hanea, D. (author), Ale, B.J.M. (author)
The recent blow-out and subsequent environmental disaster in the Gulf of Mexico have highlighted a number of serious problems in scientific thinking about safety. Risk models have generally concentrated on technical failures, which are easier to model and for which there are more concrete data. However, many primary cause of the disasters, such...
conference paper 2013
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Ale, B.J.M. (author)
Forty years of development in the science and technology of estimating and quantifying risk, of understanding of human behaviour and human rationale has made decision makers more informed. We are in a much better position now, than forty years ago in estimating probabilities, consequences, and damages, and in estimating and dealing with the...
conference paper 2013
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Xiao, F. (author), Ligteringen, H. (author), van Gulijk, C. (author), Ale, B.J.M. (author)
AIS (Automatic Identification System) data provide valuable input data for the development of simulation models to prevent shipping accidents. This paper reports on the detailed analysis of AIS data for that purpose. This analysis is focused on restricted waterways to support inland waterway simulations, comparing the differences between a...
conference paper 2012
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Andriessen, H. (author), Kluin, M.H.A. (author), Van Gulijk, C. (author), Ale, B.J.M. (author)
Participant observation is a method to collect information through active participation in the social world that is under study, in this case two different risk-related working areas where confidentiality and secrecy are paramount. In reality there is a difference between what people do and say they do. With participant observation this...
conference paper 2012
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Xiao, F. (author), Ligteringen, H. (author), Van Gulijk, C. (author), Ale, B.J.M. (author)
Collisions are an important factor in probabilistic risk modeling of waterway infrastructures. Especially in the design of bridges and terminals, the probability of ship collision is important. Researchers are looking for simulations that mimic ship behavior and estimate accident probabilities rather than using probabilistic accident models. AIS...
journal article 2012
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Xiao, F. (author), Ligteringen, H. (author), Van Gulijk, C. (author), Ale, B.J.M. (author)
A probabilistic risk model is designed to estimate probabilities of collisions for shipping accidents in busy waterways. We propose a method based on multi-agent simulation that uses an artificial force field to model ship maneuvers. The artificial force field is calibrated by AIS data (Automatic Identification System). The artificial force...
conference paper 2012
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Ale, B.J.M. (author)
public lecture 2012
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Andriessen, H. (author), Van Gulijk, C. (author), Ale, B.J.M. (author)
Airport security systems are built up out of layers of defence based on the security-in-depth model (Talbot & Jakeman, 2008). The Transport Safety Authority (TSA) in the United States defined a staggering 20 layers of defence to control security risks. This means that not only security personnel is responsible for security at the airport but...
conference paper 2012
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