Forecasting House Prices through Credit Conditions: A Bayesian Approach

As housing development and housing market policies involve many long-term decisions, improving house price predictions could benefit the functioning of the housing market. Therefore, in this paper, we investigate how house price predictions can be improved. In particular, the merits of Bayesian estimation techniques in enhancing house price...

Mortgage credit and house prices: The housing market equilibrium revisited

Over the last decade, house prices have increased substantially in nearly all OECD countries. These house price increases frequently coincided with changes in mortgage credit conditions; i.e., decreases in the interest rate and increases in income. This is in line with existing literature, which finds an equilibrium relationship between...

The effect of earthquakes on the housing market and the quality of life in the province of Groningen, the Netherlands

The Netherlands is not known for the occurrence of earthquakes. This is, however, a hot topic in the province of Groningen. Because of gas extraction, this area suffered from more than 1000 earthquakes. Most of them are not very intensive, but also bigger earthquakes of between 2 and 3 on the scale of Richter have been measured. In the last...

House prices and long-term equilibrium in the regulated market of the Netherlands

This paper establishes a simple affordability model that implicitly incorporates the major Dutch market features to elucidate long-run house prices under a regulatory environment. The results reveal a long-run relationship for house prices under strict regulations. The association among house prices, income, interest rates, and inflation is...

The mismatch between conventional house price modeling and regulated markets: insights from The Netherlands

House price modeling has been frequently used to investigate the dynamics of housing markets, especially competitive markets; yet less attention has been given to markets that have experienced considerable interventions. The aim of this study is to demonstrate a mismatch between conventional house price models and the case of the Netherlands...

Equilibrium between interest payments and income in the housing market

The literature on housing markets suggests that house prices in almost all western economies can be explained by short-run demand-oriented variables and a long- run term. The basic principles of the theory are that the short-run fluctuations, which are based on recent price developments (shocks), occur due to market imperfection, while over the...