Does a more sophisticated storm erosion model improve probabilistic erosion estimates?

The dependency between the accuracy/uncertainty of storm erosion exceedance estimates obtained via a probabilistic model and the level of sophistication of the structural function (storm erosion model) embedded in the probabilistic model is assessed via the application of Callaghan et al.'s (2008) Joint Probability Model (JPM) at Narrabeen beach...

How to weigh coastal hazard against economic consequence (poster)

It is well recognised that sea level change over the coming century will have an extraordinary economic impact on coastal communities. To overcome the uncertainty that still surrounds the mechanics of shoreline recession and stochastic forcing, landuse planning and management decisions will require a robust and quantitative risk-based approach....

An innovative approach to determine economically optimal coastal setback lines for risk informed coastal zone management

Current methods used to determine Coastal setback lines have several limitations. Furthermore, the historical practice of defining setback lines based on a single deterministic estimate is also proving inadequate with the emergence of risk management style coastal planning frameworks which require probabilistic estimates of coastal recession....

Estimating coastal recession due to sea level rise: Beyond the Bruun rule

Accelerated sea level rise (SLR) in the twenty-first century will result in unprecedented coastal recession, threatening billions of dollars worth of coastal developments and infrastructure. Therefore, we cannot continue to dep nd on the highly uncertain coastal recession estimates obtained via the simple, deterministic method (Bruun rule) that...