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What are the merits of endogenising land-use change dynamics into model-based climate adaptation planning?

Jafino, B.A. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Haasnoot, M. (author)

Integrated assessment models often treat land-use change as an external driving force. In reality, land-use is influenced by environmental conditions. This paper explores the merits of endogenising land-use change, i.e. making land-use change an internal dynamic process in models used for supporting climate adaptation planning. For this purpose,...

journal article 2019

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Designing a monitoring system to detect signals to adapt to uncertain climate change

Haasnoot, M. (author), van ’t Klooster, Susan (author), van Alphen, Jos (author)

Adaptive plans aim to anticipate uncertain future changes by combining low-regret short-term actions with long-term options to adapt, if necessary. Monitoring and timely detection of relevant changes, and critical transitions or tipping points is crucial to ensure successful and timely implementation and reassessment of the plan. Although...

journal article 2018

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Designing monitoring arrangements for collaborative learning about adaptation pathways

Hermans, L.M. (author), Haasnoot, M. (author), ter Maat, Judith (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author)

Adaptation pathways approaches support long-term planning under uncertainty. The use of adaptation pathways implies a systematic monitoring effort to inform future adaptation decisions. Such monitoring should feed into a long-term collaborative learning process between multiple actors at various levels. This raises questions about who should...

journal article 2017

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Coping with the wickedness of public policy problems: Approaches for decision-making under deep uncertainty

Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Haasnoot, M. (author), Walker, W.E. (author)

journal article 2016

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De globalisering van Adaptief Deltamanagement

Timmermans, Jos (author), Kusnadi, F. (author), Kulsum, U. (author), Haasnoot, M. (author)

In Myanmar en Bangladesh wordt aan adaptieve plannen gewerkt en in Vietnam is het Mekong deltaplan een katalysator voor nieuw beleid. TU-onderzoekers stellen scherpe vragen: richt men zich op behoud of op ontwikkeling? Hoe gaat men in verschillende culturen om met onzekerheden? Op welk schaalniveau ligt het adaptieve vermogen, en wat te doen aan...

report 2016

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Comparing Robust Decision-Making and Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways for model-based decision support under deep uncertainty

Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Haasnoot, M. (author), Walker, W.E. (author)

A variety of model-based approaches for supporting decision-making under deep uncertainty have been suggested, but they are rarely compared and contrasted. In this paper, we compare Robust Decision-Making with Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways. We apply both to a hypothetical case inspired by a river reach in the Rhine Delta of the Netherlands...

journal article 2016

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Exploring adaptation pathways in terms of flood risk management at a city scale - A case study for Shanghai city

Ke, Qian (author), Haasnoot, M. (author), Hoogvliet, Marco (author)

Cities are vulnerable to flooding and historical events, for instance Hurricane Sandy in 2012, have showed that losses in the cities are costly. In the context of climate change and socio-economic development, future flood risk will inevitably rise; adaptive measures, for instance upgrading of sea dikes and floodwalls, improving drainage...

journal article 2016

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Implementing new flood protection standards: Obstacles to adaptive management and how to overcome these

Klijn, F. (author), Asselman, Nathalie E.M. (author), De Kruif, Arno (author), Bloemen, Pieter J.T.M. (author), Haasnoot, M. (author)

The Netherlands is updating its flood protection, whilst fully taking into account climate change and socioeconomic development. This translates in 'anticipatory standards' which need to be met in 2050, and which apply for the then foreseen climate and economy. Whilst the government maintains to have adopted a policy of adaptive planning and...

journal article 2016

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How robust is a robust policy? A comparative analysis of alternative robustness metrics for supporting robust decision analysis

Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Haasnoot, M. (author)

journal article 2015

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Transient scenarios for robust climate change adaptation illustrated for water management in The Netherlands

Haasnoot, M. (author), Schellekens, J. (author), Beersma, J.J. (author), Middelkoop, H. (author), Kwadijk, J.C.J. (author)

Climate scenarios are used to explore impacts of possible future climates and to assess the robustness of adaptation actions across a range of futures. Time-dependent climate scenarios are commonly used in mitigation studies. However, despite the dynamic nature of adaptation, most scenarios for local or regional decision making on climate...

journal article 2015

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Adaptive delta management: Roots and branches

Timmermans, J.S. (author), Haasnoot, M. (author), Hermans, L.M. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Rutten, M.M. (author), Thissen, W.A.H. (author)

Deltas are generally recognized as vulnerable to climate change and therefore a salient topic in adaptation science. Deltas are also highly dynamic systems viewed from physical (erosion, sedimentation, subsidence), social (demographic), economic (trade), infrastructures (transport, energy, metropolization) and cultural (multiethnic) perspectives...

conference paper 2015

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Considerations in designing an evaluation system for adaptive delta management

Hermans, L.M. (author), Maat, J. (author), Haasnoot, M. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author)

New planning approaches put new requirements on evaluation. A recent innovation in the water domain is adaptive delta management (ADM). ADM supports long-term planning in the face of uncertainty. This paper discusses the main considerations for the design of an evaluation system for ADM, departing from literature on evaluation systems, adaptive...

conference paper 2014

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Developing dynamic adaptive policy pathways: A computer-assisted approach for developing adaptiv strategies for a deeply uncertain world

Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Haasnoot, M. (author), Walker, W.E. (author)

Sustainable water management in a changing environment full of uncertainty is profoundly challenging. To deal with these uncertainties, dynamic adaptive policies that can be changed over time are suggested. This paper presents a model-driven approach supporting the development of promising adaptation pathways, and illustrates the approach using...

journal article 2014

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Fit for purpose? Building and evaluating a fast, integrated model for exploring water policy pathways

Haasnoot, M. (author), Van Deursen, W.P.A. (author), Guillaume, J.H.A. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Van Beek, E. (author), Middelkoop, H. (author)

Exploring adaptation pathways is an emerging approach for supporting decision making under uncertain changing conditions. An adaptation pathway is a sequence of policy actions to reach specified objectives. To develop adaptation pathways, interactions between environment and policy response need to be analysed over time for an ensemble of...

journal article 2014

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Dynamic adaptive policy pathways: A method for crafting robust decisions for a deeply uncertain world

Haasnoot, M. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Walker, W.E. (author), Ter Maat, J. (author)

A new paradigm for planning under conditions of deep uncertainty has emerged in the literature. According to this paradigm, a planner should create a strategic vision of the future, commit to short-term actions, and establish a framework to guide future actions. A plan that embodies these ideas allows for its dynamic adaptation over time to meet...

journal article 2013

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Adapt or Perish: A Review of Planning Approaches for Adaptation under Deep Uncertainty

Walker, W.E. (author), Haasnoot, M. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author)

There is increasing interest in long-term plans that can adapt to changing situations under conditions of deep uncertainty. We argue that a sustainable plan should not only achieve economic, environmental, and social objectives, but should be robust and able to be adapted over time to (unforeseen) future conditions. Large numbers of papers...

journal article 2013

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Dynamic adaptive policy pathways : A method for crafting robust decisions for a deeply uncertain world

Haasnoot, M (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Walker, W.E. (author), Maat, J (author)

journal article 2013

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Computer assisted dynamic adaptive policy design for sustainable water management in river deltas in a changing environment

Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Haasnoot, M. (author)

Sustainable water management in a changing environment full of uncertainty is a profound challenge. To deal with uncertainties, dynamic adaptive policies can be used. Such policies can change over time in response to how the future unfolds, to what we learn about the system, to changes in environment, and to changes in societal preferences. This...

conference paper 2012

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Designing Adaptive Policy Pathways for Sustainable Water Management under Uncertainty: Lessons Learned from Two Cases

Haasnoot, M. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Walker, W.E. (author)

Water management in river deltas is increasingly being challenged by pressures from population growth, sea level rise, increasing variability in river runoffs, and potential climate change. Adaptation to such changes is not only determined by what is known or anticipated at present, but also by what will be experienced and learned as the future...

conference paper 2012

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Deltascenario's

Bruggeman, W. (author), Haasnoot, M. (author), Hommes, S. (author), Te Linde, A. (author), Van der Brugge, R. (author)

De Deltascenario's zijn mogelijke toekomstbeelden van de fysieke en sociaaleconomische omgeving die relevant zijn voor het Delta programma. Deze Deltascenario's zijn gebaseerd op de klimaatscenario's van het KNMI en de WLO-scenario's van de samenwerkende planbureaus, beide uit 2006. De Deltascenario's geven een indicatie van de mogelijke...

report 2011