BN-SLIM: A Bayesian network methodology for human reliability assessment based on Success Likelihood Index Method (SLIM)

Success Likelihood Index Model (SLIM) is one of the widely-used deterministic techniques in human reliability assessment especially when data is insufficient. However, this method suffers from epistemic uncertainty as it extremely relies on expert judgment for determining the model parameters such as the rates and weights of the performance...

Combining Bayesian Networks and Fishbone Diagrams to Distinguish between Intentional Attacks and Accidental Technical Failures

Because of modern societies' dependence on industrial control systems, adequate response to system failures is essential. In order to take appropriate measures, it is crucial for operators to be able to distinguish between intentional attacks and accidental technical failures. However, adequate decision support for this matter is lacking. In...

Improving the performance of Success Likelihood Index Model (SLIM) using Bayesian Network

Success Likelihood Index Model (SLIM) is one of the widely-used methods in human reliability assessment especially when data is insufficient. However, this method suffers from uncertainty as it heavily relies on expert judgment for determining the model parameters such as the rates and weights of the performance shaping factors. The present...

Application of evidential network to model uncertainty in quantitative risk assessment of Natech accidents

Natech is a technological accident which is triggered by a natural disaster. Increasing frequency of natural disasters along with an increasing growth of industrial plants are bound to increase the risk of Natechs in the future. Due to a lack of accurate field observations and empirical data, risk assessment of Natechs has largely been...

Hurricane Harvey Report: A fact-finding effort in the direct aftermath of Hurricane Harvey in the Greater Houston Region

On August 25, 2017, Hurricane Harvey made landfall near Rockport, Texas as a Category 4 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of approximately 200 km/hour. Harvey caused severe damages in coastal Texas due to extreme winds and storm surge, but will go down in history for record-setting rainfall totals and flood-related damages. Across large...

Post-Emergency, Multi-Hazard Health Risk Assessment in Chemical Disasters (PEC): Report on the Evaluation of Possible Damages Suffered by Chemical and Process Vessels due to Floods

In the context of natural-technological (natech) accidents, flood-induced damage of chemical and process facilities have received relatively less attention partly due to the scarcity of experimental or high resolution field observations from one hand and partly due to the rarity of such events on the other hand. In the present study, we have...

Vulnerability of industrial plants to flood-induced natechs: A Bayesian network approach

In the context of natural-technological (natech) accidents, flood-induced damage of industrial plants have received relatively less attention mainly due to the scarcity of such accidents compared to those triggered by earthquakes, high winds, and lightnings. The large amount of oil spillage due to floods triggered by the Hurricanes Katrina and...

Fragility assessment of chemical storage tanks subject to floods

In the context of natural-technological (natech) accidents, flood-induced damage of chemical facilities have received relatively less attention mainly due to the scarcity of experimental or high resolution field observations. In the present study, we have introduced a methodology based on load-resistance relationships to assess the vulnerability...